Abstract According to the head of a leading Chinese silicon wafer manufacturer, the non-silicon cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers is plummeting, which may challenge the advantages of polysilicon wafers. Although the 2014 edition of the International Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap (ITRPV) indicates that monocrystalline silicon wafers are expected to be in 2024...
According to the head of a leading Chinese silicon wafer manufacturer, the non-silicon cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers is plummeting and may challenge the advantages of polysilicon wafers. Although the 2014 edition of the International Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap (ITRPV) indicates that monocrystalline silicon wafers are expected to account for about 50% of the crystalline silicon market by 2024, Li Zhenguo, chairman of Longji Silicon Materials, was interviewed by PV-Tech during SNEC 2014. It is said that the demand for non-silicon for monocrystalline silicon wafers is leading to large-scale capacity expansion.
In an interview with PV-Tech, Li Zhenguo said that Longji, a specialized monocrystalline wafer manufacturer in China, plans to expand its production capacity to 3GW by the end of 2014 to meet expected demand, which will lead to an additional 1GW capacity in 2015.
Li Zhenguo pointed out: "Longji believes that monocrystalline silicon has a lower cost per kWh than polysilicon, even in China where the installation cost is lower than other markets. However, due to historical reasons, the major Chinese PV module plants have huge polysilicon capacity. So they always push the polysilicon PV modules on the market. So polysilicon components occupy most of the market."
The Longji executive, a senior in the semiconductor silicon materials industry, stressed that key markets such as China, Japan, the US and Europe, due to market subsidy cuts, and support for higher output components from ground-mounted to rooftop (commercial and residential), and The decline in monocrystalline silicon wafers or battery production is increasingly requiring high performance monocrystalline silicon components.
It is expected that the Chinese government's move to support feed-in tariff subsidies to distributed generation will also shift component selection to monocrystalline silicon rather than polysilicon at a faster rate than previously anticipated.
According to Li Zhenguo, however, the demand dynamics are only partial. He pointed out that the company has been strongly focused on reducing the non-silicon production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers for several years. It is a key long-term problem in terms of cost reduction driving force, and at the same time, it has seen huge capacity expansion of polycrystalline silicon wafers.
Li Zhenguo added: "In the past few years, Longji has issued 95 patents and patent applications, and launched ten non-patent technology innovations, including industry-leading transverse magnetic field pulling technology, single crystal modification technology, and monocrystalline silicon. Throwing machine thermal shielding technology, recharging technology and diamond wire cutting technology."
These developments have increased the productivity of new and existing production equipment while reducing labor costs, but increasing overall production and quality.
Significant improvements have been made to reduce overall cycle time, with higher draw speeds while moving to larger and longer ingots. Due to economies of scale, increased demand for monocrystalline silicon components further reduces non-silicon costs.
Therefore, the Longji executive stressed that the competitive cost structure of monocrystalline silicon wafers will seriously affect the market structure of future silicon wafer products compared with polysilicon.
Li Zhenguo pointed out that just three years ago, the non-silicon cost of monocrystalline silicon products was 0.20 to 0.25 US dollars per watt, while the non-silicon production cost of polycrystalline silicon wafers was 0.17 to 0.18 US dollars per watt.
At present, according to Li Zhenguo, this gap has obviously narrowed. Longji claims that the cost of single crystal is 0.12 US dollars per watt, and the average polycrystalline cost is about 0.10 US dollars per watt.
The cost gap will be further narrowed as Li Zhenguo cites a cost-cutting roadmap for reducing the cost of single-crystal non-silicon in the next three years to $0.06 to $0.07 per watt.
Although it is said that the reduction in production costs has always been crucial, focusing on downstream to increase the profitability of monocrystalline silicon components will also play an important role in the revival of the use of monocrystalline silicon wafers.
Li Zhenguo pointed out: "Because of the high efficiency of monocrystalline silicon cells and modules, monocrystalline silicon installation cost savings are significant, and monocrystalline silicon has advantages in both ground and distributed power plants. The variable cost of integrated photovoltaic systems and the actual power generation premium The contribution of monocrystalline silicon wafers to polysilicon wafers is more than 0.48 to 0.789 US dollars, which will further exceed the price difference between monocrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon wafers (about 0.29 US dollars, 2013/4).
According to Li Zhenguo, there is a common industry misunderstanding about the production cost of high-efficiency N-type single crystal silicon wafers compared with the production cost of P-type single crystal silicon.
The chairman of Longji said that because the company has mature N-type monocrystalline silicon production equipment and technology, it can also be used for the production of two types of monocrystalline silicon wafers. The non-silicon cost difference is less than 10%, which is generally considered to be low cost.
Li Zhenguo added: "As the demand for N-type monocrystalline silicon increases, as the N-type capacity expands, the cost difference will shrink."
Li Zhenguo said that after several years of suppression of monocrystalline silicon product development and capacity expansion, more and more solar cell manufacturers are focusing on increasing the output of monocrystalline silicon cells. He believes that the adoption of monocrystalline silicon wafers will begin in 2014. Greatly improved in the next few years.
Li Zhenguo concluded: "The spring of monocrystalline silicon is coming soon."
The Longji executive, a senior in the semiconductor silicon materials industry, stressed that key markets such as China, Japan, the US and Europe, due to market subsidy cuts, and support for higher output components from ground-mounted to rooftop (commercial and residential), and The decline in monocrystalline silicon wafers or battery production is increasingly requiring high performance monocrystalline silicon components.
It is expected that the Chinese government's move to support feed-in tariff subsidies to distributed generation will also shift component selection to monocrystalline silicon rather than polysilicon at a faster rate than previously anticipated.
According to Li Zhenguo, however, the demand dynamics are only partial. He pointed out that the company has been strongly focused on reducing the non-silicon production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers for several years. It is a key long-term problem in terms of cost reduction driving force, and at the same time, it has seen huge capacity expansion of polycrystalline silicon wafers.
Li Zhenguo added: "In the past few years, Longji has issued 95 patents and patent applications, and launched ten non-patent technology innovations, including industry-leading transverse magnetic field pulling technology, single crystal modification technology, and monocrystalline silicon. Throwing machine thermal shielding technology, recharging technology and diamond wire cutting technology."
These developments have increased the productivity of new and existing production equipment while reducing labor costs, but increasing overall production and quality.
Significant improvements have been made to reduce overall cycle time, with higher draw speeds while moving to larger and longer ingots. Due to economies of scale, increased demand for monocrystalline silicon components further reduces non-silicon costs.
Therefore, the Longji executive stressed that the competitive cost structure of monocrystalline silicon wafers will seriously affect the market structure of future silicon wafer products compared with polysilicon.
Li Zhenguo pointed out that just three years ago, the non-silicon cost of monocrystalline silicon products was 0.20 to 0.25 US dollars per watt, while the non-silicon production cost of polycrystalline silicon wafers was 0.17 to 0.18 US dollars per watt.
At present, according to Li Zhenguo, this gap has obviously narrowed. Longji claims that the cost of single crystal is 0.12 US dollars per watt, and the average polycrystalline cost is about 0.10 US dollars per watt.
The cost gap will be further narrowed as Li Zhenguo cites a cost-cutting roadmap for reducing the cost of single-crystal non-silicon in the next three years to $0.06 to $0.07 per watt.
Although it is said that the reduction in production costs has always been crucial, focusing on downstream to increase the profitability of monocrystalline silicon components will also play an important role in the revival of the use of monocrystalline silicon wafers.
Li Zhenguo pointed out: "Because of the high efficiency of monocrystalline silicon cells and modules, monocrystalline silicon installation cost savings are significant, and monocrystalline silicon has advantages in both ground and distributed power plants. The variable cost of integrated photovoltaic systems and the actual power generation premium The contribution of monocrystalline silicon wafers to polysilicon wafers is more than 0.48 to 0.789 US dollars, which will further exceed the price difference between monocrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon wafers (about 0.29 US dollars, 2013/4).
According to Li Zhenguo, there is a common industry misunderstanding about the production cost of high-efficiency N-type single crystal silicon wafers compared with the production cost of P-type single crystal silicon.
The chairman of Longji said that because the company has mature N-type monocrystalline silicon production equipment and technology, it can also be used for the production of two types of monocrystalline silicon wafers. The non-silicon cost difference is less than 10%, which is generally considered to be low cost.
Li Zhenguo added: "As the demand for N-type monocrystalline silicon increases, as the N-type capacity expands, the cost difference will shrink."
Li Zhenguo said that after several years of suppression of monocrystalline silicon product development and capacity expansion, more and more solar cell manufacturers are focusing on increasing the output of monocrystalline silicon cells. He believes that the adoption of monocrystalline silicon wafers will begin in 2014. Greatly improved in the next few years.
Li Zhenguo concluded: "The spring of monocrystalline silicon is coming soon."
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