China’s State Council Development Research Center’s Minister of Foreign Economic Research, Long Guoqiang, predicted on Thursday that China’s foreign trade exports will continue to recover in 2010, and the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, thanks to the recovery of the world economy and the improvement of external demand. Imports will also Due to the strong domestic demand, the growth rate may be faster than exports.
In an exclusive interview with Reuters, he said that although the economic prospects are good, neither the world nor China, the foundation of recovery is unstable, and still faces many uncertain factors. Therefore, in China’s exchange rate policy adjustment, foreign trade is still considered this year. An important factor.
"The important factors affecting the exchange rate policy are mainly foreign trade and the government's need for macro management. From the current situation, China's certainty factors in macro management are much higher than those of foreign trade," Long Guoqiang said. "Although the external appreciation of the renminbi is It is expected that China's foreign trade will recover obviously, but I don't think it is a good time to appreciate."
He further explained that China's foreign trade is still in the recovery stage this year, especially after the impact of the global financial crisis, global trade protectionism has become more concentrated, and China's foreign trade still faces many uncertainties, so the stable external environment and export policies, including exchange rates. Stability is of vital importance to foreign trade companies.
He said that the exchange rate of developed countries is often overvalued, and the exchange rate of developing countries is often underestimated. This is a common phenomenon, and China is no exception. "The nominal exchange rate of RMB is indeed underestimated, but this does not mean that it needs to be adjusted immediately and appreciate. It is a long process. If it is greatly appreciated, the impact on the macro economy will be great."
The continued recovery of exports is considered to be a key prerequisite for China's gradual appreciation of the RMB-CFXS exchange rate against the US dollar. From mid-2005 to mid-2008, the RMB has appreciated by about 21%. But since the mid-2008 global financial crisis worsened, China After the sharp decline in exports, China actually pegged the yuan to the US dollar, staying around 6.83 yuan.
Foreign politicians, including US President Barack Obama and European Union (EU) Executive Chairman Barroso, have pressured Chinese leaders in the past few months to visit China and demand that the renminbi appreciate. But China has rejected it with increasingly strong tone. Their request. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last month that this request is equivalent to trying to stifle China's economic growth. Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said earlier that the RMB exchange rate can be flexible, but China will continue to work hard to maintain The stability of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar.
** Export recovery growth**
Long Guoqiang said that although the financial crisis has caused China's foreign trade to be hit hard, from the comprehensive analysis of the main market share has not been reduced, the decline in foreign trade has narrowed month by month, and so on, the competitive advantage of China's commodity exports is still there, which is also the basis for the continued recovery of foreign trade this year. .
China's trade data released in December last year showed an unexpected increase in both import and export. Although there is a low base, the strong domestic and foreign demand also shows the hope of China's foreign trade prospects.
China's exports in December 2009 ended as expected and ended 13 months of negative growth, returning to the positive range, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7%; imports increased by 55.9% year-on-year. In 2009, exports fell by 16%, and imports fell by 11.2%. The trade surplus was US$196.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34.2%.
"It should be said that China's 16% decline in exports in 2009 was the worst in the 30 years of reform and opening up, but the rebound in December also exceeded expectations. This year should continue to rise." Long Guoqiang said.
He is also optimistic that China’s exports will return to above $100 billion in July last year. If the average monthly export volume is maintained at US$110 billion this year, the annual export growth is estimated to be 12%. “At least 10 %There is no problem."
On the import side, Long Guoqiang pointed out that the rebound in commodity prices in the international market and the strong domestic demand are undoubtedly important reasons for the sharp increase in imports. However, he did not make predictions on the data. "From the current momentum, this year's imports. The growth rate may be higher than the export growth rate, which is also beneficial to the pursuit of trade balance and reducing the surplus."
In an exclusive interview with Reuters, he said that although the economic prospects are good, neither the world nor China, the foundation of recovery is unstable, and still faces many uncertain factors. Therefore, in China’s exchange rate policy adjustment, foreign trade is still considered this year. An important factor.
"The important factors affecting the exchange rate policy are mainly foreign trade and the government's need for macro management. From the current situation, China's certainty factors in macro management are much higher than those of foreign trade," Long Guoqiang said. "Although the external appreciation of the renminbi is It is expected that China's foreign trade will recover obviously, but I don't think it is a good time to appreciate."
He further explained that China's foreign trade is still in the recovery stage this year, especially after the impact of the global financial crisis, global trade protectionism has become more concentrated, and China's foreign trade still faces many uncertainties, so the stable external environment and export policies, including exchange rates. Stability is of vital importance to foreign trade companies.
He said that the exchange rate of developed countries is often overvalued, and the exchange rate of developing countries is often underestimated. This is a common phenomenon, and China is no exception. "The nominal exchange rate of RMB is indeed underestimated, but this does not mean that it needs to be adjusted immediately and appreciate. It is a long process. If it is greatly appreciated, the impact on the macro economy will be great."
The continued recovery of exports is considered to be a key prerequisite for China's gradual appreciation of the RMB-CFXS exchange rate against the US dollar. From mid-2005 to mid-2008, the RMB has appreciated by about 21%. But since the mid-2008 global financial crisis worsened, China After the sharp decline in exports, China actually pegged the yuan to the US dollar, staying around 6.83 yuan.
Foreign politicians, including US President Barack Obama and European Union (EU) Executive Chairman Barroso, have pressured Chinese leaders in the past few months to visit China and demand that the renminbi appreciate. But China has rejected it with increasingly strong tone. Their request. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last month that this request is equivalent to trying to stifle China's economic growth. Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said earlier that the RMB exchange rate can be flexible, but China will continue to work hard to maintain The stability of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar.
** Export recovery growth**
Long Guoqiang said that although the financial crisis has caused China's foreign trade to be hit hard, from the comprehensive analysis of the main market share has not been reduced, the decline in foreign trade has narrowed month by month, and so on, the competitive advantage of China's commodity exports is still there, which is also the basis for the continued recovery of foreign trade this year. .
China's trade data released in December last year showed an unexpected increase in both import and export. Although there is a low base, the strong domestic and foreign demand also shows the hope of China's foreign trade prospects.
China's exports in December 2009 ended as expected and ended 13 months of negative growth, returning to the positive range, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7%; imports increased by 55.9% year-on-year. In 2009, exports fell by 16%, and imports fell by 11.2%. The trade surplus was US$196.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34.2%.
"It should be said that China's 16% decline in exports in 2009 was the worst in the 30 years of reform and opening up, but the rebound in December also exceeded expectations. This year should continue to rise." Long Guoqiang said.
He is also optimistic that China’s exports will return to above $100 billion in July last year. If the average monthly export volume is maintained at US$110 billion this year, the annual export growth is estimated to be 12%. “At least 10 %There is no problem."
On the import side, Long Guoqiang pointed out that the rebound in commodity prices in the international market and the strong domestic demand are undoubtedly important reasons for the sharp increase in imports. However, he did not make predictions on the data. "From the current momentum, this year's imports. The growth rate may be higher than the export growth rate, which is also beneficial to the pursuit of trade balance and reducing the surplus."
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