According to the monitoring data released by the Ministry of Commerce recently, the prices of edible agricultural products continued to fall from October 24 to 30 last week. This is the third consecutive week since October, and the CPI growth is expected to further increase. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables last week decreased by 2.2% compared with the previous week, and the average wholesale price of eight kinds of aquatic products decreased by 1%. The price of meat and eggs fluctuated slightly, with pork and eggs falling by 1% and 0.6% respectively. The Ministry of Commerce released the monitoring data of edible agricultural products in each month of the month released in October, except that the price of edible agricultural products rose slightly during the “Eleventh†period, and then fell for three consecutive weeks. During the three weeks, the average wholesale price of 18 vegetables decreased by 5%, 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively, and pork prices decreased by 1.2%, 1.8% and 1% respectively. According to data from Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Electronic Trading Center, the meat, poultry and egg index, grain and oil index, and vegetable index in October both showed a downward trend compared with September. The fall in the price of edible agricultural products has kept the market optimistic about C PI. The industry believes that macro-control has achieved certain results in controlling prices. The Ministry of Commerce recently issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of the Traceability System for the Distribution of Meat and Vegetables during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period". The opinions require that large-scale slaughtering enterprises and circulation enterprises should be encouraged to extend the industrial chain and implement integrated production and sales operations; actively promote the organization and sales mode of “agricultural super-docking†and other organizations, and vigorously develop chain operations and cold chain distribution. Zhang Lei, a macroeconomic analyst at Minsheng Securities, said that strengthening the circulation system of meat and vegetables will help reduce the cost of circulation and storage of agricultural products. The turnover of Chinese agricultural products is twice as high as that of Western countries, thus pushing up the prices of agricultural products. The improvement of the circulation system will help the decline of the C PI increase. Experts believe that from October's consumption of agricultural products, the October CPI year-on-year increase will be between 5.3% and 5.4%. It is expected that the CPI increase in November and December will continue to fall back to 4.8% and 4.5%. The increase will be within 5%, and the annual increase for next year will be between 3% and 3.5%. Li Daokui, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China and director of the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, said that 60% of inflation this year comes from agricultural products, 20% of which comes from pork prices, but due to increased investment this year, pork prices will be confirmed next year. After the meeting, the C PI increase is expected to fall to a lower position. Market participants believe that despite the expected increase in CPI decline, stable prices are still the primary goal of current macroeconomic regulation and control. The introduction of future macroeconomic policies will be very cautious, and neither can be further tightened nor suddenly turned to relax.
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