Chemical industry encountered a roller coaster agrochemical plate still has a look

According to the price survey of business clubs, in the August 2014 commodity price fluctuations list, there were a total of 40 categories of goods in the chemicals sector, including 10 categories, of which there were 10 products that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities; The top 3 products were epichlorohydrin (28.08%), melamine (9.17%), and monoammonium phosphate (8.75%).

In August, the domestic chemical market experienced a “roller coaster” market, and the beginning of the month took over the strong organic chemical sector created in July due to high international crude oil oscillations. It continued to reach the peak on August 12 and opened the slide channel on August 14th. Scenery is no longer, agrochemical plate alone difficult to support, the market completely into the new fall adjustment cycle. As of August 31, the China Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) released by the commodity data provider - Business Club was -0.45, with an average increase of -0.66%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy contracted from the previous month. Downside risks.

The lack of cost support. In August, the international crude oil broke the threshold of US$100/barrel and fell to US$5/bbl at the end of the month, once dropping to a low of US$92.65/barrel. Pure benzene, aniline, styrene, butadiene and other products came from upstream costs. Insufficient support has fallen. Among them, butadiene has dropped the most, reaching 9.09%. The monthly prices of other products such as pure benzene, octanol, and styrene have all fallen by more than 3%. The basic organic chemical products show an overall downward trend.

First of all, the demand from the international and domestic markets has driven the agrochemical sector as a whole to bottom out. Taking 64% DAP as an example, the total number of export orders signed by Chinese enterprises and traders between May and August is about 2.6 to 3 million tons. At present, the export of diammonium enterprises in China is still steadily increasing, and the ever-increasing order volume has pushed up the current export volume. FOB offer 460-470 US dollars / ton. According to analysis, India still needs to purchase 2 million tons of diammonium this year, while China's diammonium export volume is expected to reach 5 million tons. The popularity of exports will directly drive the domestic autumn market, and the price hike will be the main theme of the autumn market. However, according to business social fertilizer analyst Zhang Ming, because after September the major manufacturers target will be the domestic agricultural demand market, dealers are still cautious about high-priced supply, the price of the upstream and downstream stalemate may have a slight fall risk.

Second, "hunger marketing" is widely used. August melamine parking or limited production enterprises, the overall operating rate of less than 60%, coupled with the small amount of inventory of various companies, supply was slightly tight, the price rose sharply 9.17%. In the propylene oxide ranked seventh in the gain list, market players also seized the opportunity of factory maintenance to make a fuss. After all, they pushed up the price by 6.10% within a month.

Zhang Ming, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of the business community, pointed out that the rising basis of the market in July was not solid. In early August, facing the unfavorable situation of rapid decline in international crude oil, the external disk of organic products took the lead (such as butadiene and **). Domestic manufacturers have followed suit and their efforts have been reduced.

The agrochemical sector rose rapidly under the export orders (such as urea and diammonium phosphate) driven by the export orders at the middle and end of the year. At the end of the month, it encountered domestic distributors and downstream manufacturers and turned to the adjustment stage. The increase in propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin was caused by the increase in the price of upstream propylene. The difference was that epichlorohydrin evolved into the demand for downstream epoxy resins from the second week, while propylene oxide evolved into The factory equipment overhaul (Shanxi, Shandong 195,000 tons of equipment planned to start maintenance on August 28, Shandong Xinyue 300,000 tons of equipment maintenance plan to be completed by the end of August) caused by the passive rise.