China's manufacturing industry has fallen into the lowest point of the year. Whether it is from HSBC August PMI data or official August PMI, the situation of China's manufacturing industry is not optimistic. The data shows that HSBC's August PMI final value was 47.6, down to a 41-month low since March 2009, while the officially announced August manufacturing PMI was only 49.2%, the first time in nine months fell below the line. In the face of the downward pressure on the economy, how to adjust the monetary policy, the industry has a different voice. PMI fell below the dry line manufacturing industry fell into the lowest in the year. HSBC announced on the 3rd that the final value of the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in August was 47.6, which fell to a new low since March 2009 and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The dividing line of prosperity and decline. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released a PMI of 49.2% in August, which was the first time since November last year that it fell below 50%, hitting a new nine-month low. In the face of poor performance data, Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, said that manufacturing operations are facing a more difficult external environment: on the one hand, external demand is still in the downward channel (export growth in July has dropped to 1%) On the other hand, domestic demand has not recovered significantly. Li Changan, an associate professor at the School of Public Administration of the University of International Business and Economics, told the International Business Daily that the PMI index is still on the decline, indicating that the real economy represented by manufacturing is still deteriorating. In particular, some key indicators, such as production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, and employee index are still falling, which means that the future business situation and employment situation will remain severe. Cut interest rates? Reduced? Reverse repurchase? Monetary policy is still waiting to face the pressure of economic downturn, whether monetary policy should continue to adjust, how to adjust, there is a different voice in this industry view. Before the central bank has cut interest rates twice in a month, what kind of action will the central bank take in the future? In this regard, Li Changan, an associate professor of the School of Public Administration of the University of International Business and Economics, believes that in the face of the severe economic situation, in order to achieve the goal of “stable growthâ€, it is believed that there will be further stimulus policies before the 18th National Congress, including interest rate cuts and quasi. Lu Ting, a Chinese economist at the US and Merrill Lynch, also predicted in the Guangzhou Daily that after the relaxation of this year's May to July, the relaxation of the second round of monetary policy during the year will soon begin: September and In October, China will have a two-round decline in the reserve requirement ratio. However, although the expectations for RRR cuts continue to heat up, the central bank has not been able to act. In this regard, Tian Jia Fund senior strategist Liu Jiazhang told the China Securities Journal that the central bank is expected to use reverse repurchase instead of RRR cuts. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, also pointed out that "out of the concern about the rebound in prices, the government level is more cautious in terms of monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and lowering of the reserve requirement ratio, and prefers to adopt reverse repurchase to increase market flows. Sex."
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