The earthquake will directly affect Japan's high-end steel exports. Chinese steel companies have the opportunity to increase their market share in the high-end steel market in the next three to six months. The global high-end steel supply may have been "shocked" by the Japanese earthquake.
On the 15th, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Xinyu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Shougang Group and other Chinese steel mills all said that they are paying close attention to the damage suffered by Japanese steel mills during the earthquake. The impact of the global steel market.
“Japan’s exports of steel are mainly high-end products.†Wang Hong, vice chairman of Xinyu Steel, said that the company’s main export steel products are marine steel plates. Currently, the company exports according to plan (orders), but will closely monitor the foreign market.
"Gap" is mainly in high-end steel
According to available data, Japan's steel industry ranks second in the world. In 2010, crude steel production was 109 million tons, second only to China. Japan is also the world's largest steel exporter. In the northeastern part of Japan, which occurred in the magnitude 9.0 earthquake, it is a heavy industrial area in Japan, and it has concentrated on pillar industries such as steel, automobiles, and petrochemicals.
According to the latest assessment report provided by the well-known steel information agency “My Steel†on the 14th, the earthquake in Japan directly affected the crude steel production capacity of about 26 million tons in Japan’s three major steel mills (this is equivalent to Japan’s 110 million tons of steel production in 2010). 20%), the most influential steel products are thin and medium-sized plates, mainly used in the automotive and shipbuilding industries; secondly, wire rods, mainly used in the automotive and construction industries; the production capacity of stainless steel, profiles and steel pipes is also affected.
"Recently, Japan's steel exports will be reduced, and steel export opportunities in neighboring countries including China will increase," Hu Yanping, an analyst at China United Steel Network, told reporters.
Guodong Securities analyst Zheng Dong pointed out in the research report that the earthquake will directly affect the export of high-end steel products in Japan, which will benefit the high-end sheet metal production enterprises in China, such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel.
After the earthquake in Japan, many steel mills in China have been closely monitoring the impact of several major steel mills in Japan. Some domestic steel companies told reporters that they are studying the countermeasures for the “gap†of steel supply after the earthquake in Japan.
"The situation is still not very clear. It is necessary to determine how much the actual export of Japanese steel mills will be affected before we can have a more accurate assessment." Recently, Baosteel Securities Affairs Representative Qi Hong told reporters that from the current domestic steel spot prices Overall, it is relatively stable and there is no big fluctuation.
Analysts said that if Japan's exports shrink, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel have the opportunity to increase the market share of China's high-end steel sales market in the next three to six months.
Can Chinese steel mills seize the opportunity?
Right now, the price adjustment period of domestic leading steel mills, Baosteel Co., Ltd. followed the WISCO's April steel price policy on the 15th, and issued a “flat†for the main varieties. It is worth noting that, like WISCO, Baosteel will be oriented. The price per ton of electrical steel has been raised by 1,000 yuan.
Despite the supply gap in Japan after the earthquake, can China's high-end steel products be “filled in� Many analysts expressed concern that China's high-end steel exports may not increase significantly.
Hu Yanping said that due to the weak competitiveness of Chinese steel enterprises in high-end steel, it is difficult to increase the export of high-end products, but the opportunities for mid-end products such as hot-rolling, medium-plate and galvanizing and color coating will increase.
In this regard, Sheng Zhicheng, deputy secretary-general of the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that in terms of cold-rolled wide strip, hot-rolled wide strip and galvanized steel, China has some alternatives because China’s domestic production is also Not small, but similar to 7.8 million tons of special steel, it is estimated that it is difficult, because China itself is also dependent on imports.
Wang Hong also agreed that Chinese steel mills want to export a large number of high-end steel products, the threshold is still relatively high, and China's current consumption is relatively large steel, such as construction steel.
"The earthquake in Japan is not an important factor in the general steel market, but for some relatively high-end steels, especially those with high export tax rebates, it is possible to stabilize or increase the current steel prices." Wang Hong said. According to Oriental Morning Post
Rare earth export pressures increase, aviation industry suffers, Japanese milk powder supply is tight, SLR cameras are rising, and vitamin E capacity is limited... The supply chain crisis caused by the earthquake in Japan has gradually appeared in the domestic market.
China's rare earth export pressure
As a major consumer of rare and non-ferrous metals, the earthquake in Japan gave rare earth markets dominated by rare earths, and the non-ferrous metals market dominated by aluminum, copper, lead and zinc brought a bit of pessimism.
Among the rare metals, Japan imports the most from China.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in 2010, China's rare earth oxide products exported to Japan accounted for about 43% of the total exports, not including the rare earth smuggled into Japan.
The reporter learned from the China Rare Earth Society that Japan's rare earth import bay is mainly located on the southwest coast of Japan and was less affected by the earthquake. However, the suspension of several semiconductor factories in the disaster area, such as Toshiba, Sony, Fujitsu and Canon, has already caused Chinese rare earths to feel the pressure of exports.
Minmetals Quzhou Rare Earth Company revealed that the earthquake has affected a small amount of rare earth exports, but due to the interlocking Japanese industrial chain, the real impact on the rare earth industry remains to be seen. Baotou Steel also told reporters that it is closely monitoring the impact of the earthquake on the rare earth industry.
Not only rare metals, but also the export of other metal products.
According to Chinalco's statistics, Japan is a net importer of aluminum. In 2010, Japan's aluminum consumption was 2.154 million tons, accounting for 5.25% of global demand.
The non-ferrous industry analysts of China Merchants Securities and Guosen Securities all said that aluminum electrolytic capacitors and automobile factories have stopped production, which has a long-term impact on aluminum consumption, and aluminum price pressure has been formed.
In terms of copper, the earthquake caused the closure of two major copper smelters in Japan, accounting for almost one-third of Japan's copper production.
At present, the earthquake in Japan has affected the Chilean copper industry. The Chilean government has issued evacuation notices to all flood-stricken coastal areas in the country to avoid the casualties caused by the tsunami caused by the earthquake in Japan, which will affect the export of Chilean copper. Chilean copper miners have also quickly adjusted their copper export routes to transfer copper products exported to Japan to China.
In addition, Japan is also a major demander of tin and nickel in the world, and the earthquake will also have a certain negative impact on the demand for nickel and tin in the short term.
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