The newly released "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Strengthening the Balanced Development of Imports to Promote Foreign Trade" (hereinafter referred to as "Guiding Opinions") clearly indicates that some energy raw materials, daily necessities closely related to life, and some advanced technological equipment and parts will be Import tariffs are reduced and adjusted.
Following the Ministry of Finance’s implementation of a lower import provisional tax rate for more than 730 commodities in January, the introduction of this “guidance opinion†conveyed a clearer signal of policy transformation – the era of “strict entry and exit†may end.
The implementation of “expanding domestic demand†from the slogan to the policy indicates that China’s economic restructuring is gradually being implemented. However, whether the tax leverage adjustment can achieve the “rebalancing†of the trade structure, the market also has different views.
Shortly before the release of the “Guidance Opinionâ€, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Bank and director of market research, suggested in Weibo that the iron ore import tariff should be greatly increased to reduce the production of domestic steel mills. He believes that this measure will run counter to the reduction of electricity consumption (China's coal-fired power is the main pollution) and steel-sewage emissions, reducing domestic pollution, while maintaining iron ore zero tariffs and energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental protection runs counter to.
In addition to environmental protection, the more realistic reasons come from the poor performance of related fields.
Despite maintaining zero tariffs on iron ore imports, the national steel industry achieved a net profit of minus 1.334 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, which was the first industry-wide loss in the past 12 years and the industry's largest decline in industrial profits.
One of the reasons for the loss in the steel industry is considered to be high iron ore prices. According to Xu Guangjian, an analyst with United Metals, the iron ore accounts for about 40% of the cost of steel.
In an interview with this reporter, Hou Zhiwei, a senior analyst at Lange Steel, also said that in recent years, iron ore prices have risen at an alarming rate. In 2000, the import price of iron ore was about 20 US dollars/ton. In 2010, the highest price exceeded 200 US dollars/ton. Even if it is now down, it is about 150 US dollars/ton. It is difficult for downstream enterprises to absorb this rising cost. According to statistics, since the second half of last year, the loss of steel companies has exceeded 40%.
According to data released by China Steel Association, China imported 686 million tons of iron ore in 2011, and the average CIF price of imported iron ore was US$163.84/ton, up by US$128.85/ton over the same period of 2010. The cumulative import of iron ore in the year, the cumulative increase in the Chinese steel industry is 23.9 billion US dollars.
On the other hand, the scale of China's steel industry has reached 900 million tons, exceeding the plan of China's steel “12th Five-Year Planâ€. Before 2015, China's total steel consumption will be between 710 million tons and 810 million tons. Requirements, has entered the period of overcapacity.
Taking iron ore as a sample and reducing the import tax rate to become a global iron ore buyer, at the same time, in the international market, Chinese companies have not obtained pricing power that matches the market position. When fully integrated with the international market, steel companies bear the risk of price fluctuations, and they have not achieved effective adjustment of the domestic industrial structure.
"We can't expect all enterprises to live forever, greatly increase import tariffs, change their thinking, and rely on market competition to force the steel industry to achieve the survival of the fittest, which is really beneficial to adjust the structure." Lu political commissar said in an interview with this reporter, improve Iron ore import tariffs do not have to worry about steel companies will not afford.
However, Lin Boqiang said that he should be cautious in raising China's iron ore import tariffs, and should fully consider the current impact on steel enterprises. Under the current economic downturn, “even if a 5% tariff is imposed, it will erode 5% of the enterprise. profit."
A purchasing person in charge of Shougang Jingtang Iron and Steel United Co., Ltd. told reporters that “the profit of one ton of steel is only tens of yuan, but the expenditure has increased greatly, especially the labor cost of our state-owned enterprises accounts for 20% to 30%, such as improving China. Iron ore import tariffs will undoubtedly increase corporate cost pressures." But he also admitted that although the short-term increase in taxation will affect the company, in the long run, this will help the technological transformation of enterprises and force the full transformation of enterprises, and increase the added value. And compress capacity.
Mr. Wang, the head of a private enterprise in Tangshan, has more concerns about the future. "We are only making flexible orders now, we are afraid to expand the scale, and we are afraid that the investment will be in the future."
When the tax reduction and favorable policies were introduced, the controversy surrounding the zero tariff of iron ore imports indicated that the implementation of the policy still needs more supportive industrial policies to support it.
Since July 1, 2011, the import tariff rate has been lowered for 33 items of tariff items such as gasoline.
In 2011, China implemented a lower annual import provisional tax rate for more than 600 resource, basic raw materials and key component products.
Since November 1, 2012, China has implemented a low import temporary tax rate for more than 730 commodities, including energy resource products, developing high-end equipment manufacturing, new generation information technology, and new energy vehicles. Key equipment and components required.
On April 30, 2012, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Imports to Promote Balanced Development of Foreign Trade." Adjust import tariffs on some commodities, reduce import tariffs on some energy raw materials, and appropriately reduce import tariffs on household goods that are closely related to people's lives.
Limited adjustment
Although the current list of specific products related to tax reduction has not yet been announced, non-ferrous metals such as coal, coke, crude oil, iron ore, aluminum and Copper, which are in high demand in the domestic manufacturing industry, are primary energy raw materials. At present, the price of non-ferrous metals has been at a high level, and the relevant tariff adjustments are expected to release the cost pressure.
Lin Boqiang, an energy economist at the Asian Development Bank and director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with the China Business News on May 2 that the price of foreign energy raw materials has risen sharply in recent years, in order not to increase the foreign raw materials. The rise in domestic commodity prices has been passed on to consumers, so it is necessary to lower import tariffs to encourage imports and boost consumption.
This linkage effect is particularly evident in some products with strong import dependence in China.
At present, the external dependence of copper concentrate reaches 80%, and the external dependence of bauxite is close to 70%. It requires a large amount of imports every year. Once the international market price rises, the price of downstream products will rise.
The latest research report of Huatai United Securities believes that although international commodity prices stopped rebounding in April and fell slightly, the prices of domestic production materials lag slightly, and there is still a certain increase in the chain in April, especially minerals, energy and agricultural materials. The price chain is still rising more obviously. It is expected that the PPI will increase by 0.1% in April.
It is worth noting that after the Ministry of Finance implemented a lower import provisional tax rate for resource products including coal, coke, refined oil, marble, granite, natural rubber, rare earth, copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. in January, the average tax rate It is 4.4%, which is more than half of the MFN average tax rate of around 9%. In the Ministry of Finance's 2012 Tariff Implementation Plan, the import tariffs on copper and aluminum have been zero.
In this regard, Lin Boqiang said: "In recent years, there has been a gap in domestic energy raw materials, which prompted the government to change the measures to reward raw material exports and restrict imports in the past, and then encourage imports."
However, for the tariff reduction, he said that although the "guidance opinion" is not clear, based on past experience, the reduction may be limited. “Most of the country has implemented a modest decline, that is, a little more downwards every time.â€
Many ministries and commissions jointly promote domestic demand
In the "Guidance Opinion" announced this time, a significant change is also reflected in the strengthening of the protection of the import service system.
In accordance with the requirements of the "Guidance Opinion", further improve the efficiency of customs clearance. Improve supervision and services in customs, quality inspection, foreign exchange and other aspects. Customs and entry-exit inspection and quarantine agencies at the ports and special customs control areas shall make 24-hour appointments for customs clearance and inspection.
Prior to this, such treatment was only available to exporting companies.
Compared with the previous tax cuts led by the Ministry of Finance, the “Guidance Opinions†announced this time added coordination and collaboration between more ministries and functional departments.
In fact, the rules on the promotion of exports have formed a relatively complete opinion as early as last year. According to informed sources, due to the business coordination between multiple ministries and commissions, and the delay in reaching a unified opinion, the unified release by the State Council has shown that the implementation of “promoting and expanding domestic demand†has reached a very specific stage.
Signals transmitted at the macroeconomic level are also shifting policy orientation from traditional exports to domestic demand.
On May 1st, the survey report released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the PMI in April was 53.3, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the new order was 54.5, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the export order was 52.2. The monthly rebound was 0.3 percentage points; the purchase price was 54.8, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month; the finished goods inventory was 49.5, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Some insiders believe that the PMI composite index rebounded slightly in April, but the numerical performance and the sequential rebound were weaker than in previous years. The production index rose from 55.2 to 57.2, while the purchase volume and import index decreased. In terms of PMI index performance, the average PMI index is 56.4, and the average value of the month-on-month rebound is 0.9. The two values ​​for this month are 53.3 and 0.2 respectively, which is weaker than the historical level. The overall indicates that manufacturing demand continues to be weak.
In the context of the uncertainties in the European debt crisis, China’s foreign trade has continued to decline since the second half of last year. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in the first quarter of this year, China’s total import and export volume reached US$ 859.2 billion, an increase of 7.3%, down 22.3 percentage points year-on-year. On the import side, the data showed that the import value in the first quarter was 429.21 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.8%, down 26 percentage points year on year.
Compared with the decline in trade volume, foreign trade friction has risen significantly. Especially in the two traditional export markets of the European Union and the United States, the “double-reverse†investigation was recently launched in many product fields such as bicycles and photovoltaic products.
In fact, the balance between domestic and foreign trade has become a more and more difficult topic to avoid. In the "Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation (Spring 2012)" released by the Ministry of Commerce on April 27, the improvement of import policies and the establishment of more import promotion platforms were written in an important position. The Chinese economy will soon be an era of "strict entry and relaxation".
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