In 2009, China's coal production reached 3.05 billion tons, coal production accounted for 77.2% of primary energy, coal consumption of 1.1 million tons of million yuan GDP, coal production elasticity coefficient of 0.7, and coal consumption elasticity coefficient of 0.6.
A series of data shows that it is difficult for China's economic growth to rely on coal for a short period of time.
At the same time, another set of data also illustrates the cost of this dependence: In 2009, 2,631 deaths from coal mining accidents occurred in the country, and the death rate per million tons was 0.86, nearly 10 times that of the United States.
Recently, when Qian Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, interviewed a reporter from the Scientific Times, he pointed out that if China only mines 1 billion tons of large-scale coal mines with good geological conditions each year, the death rate per million tons will be comparable to that of the United States.
"That is to say, if we do not mine so much coal, safety is guaranteed," Qian Mingao said. However, in order to meet the growth of energy demand for economic development, over-extraction has become a last resort. From 2000 to 2009, China's coal production increased at an average annual rate of 8.2%.
So, what should be the scientific capacity of coal in China?
At the first China National Academy of Engineering/National Energy Board Energy Forum held on November 18th, Xie Heping, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Engineering “China Energy Medium and Long Term Development Strategy†Consultant Research Group on Coal (hereinafter referred to as the Coal Group) responded: According to the analysis of production capacity under constraints such as resource reserves, safety and efficiency, water resources, and ecological environment, it is recommended that the scientific production capacity suitable for the sustainable development of the coal industry in China from 2030 to 2050 should not exceed 3.8 billion tons.
Xie Heping also appealed: China's coal production in the future can no longer take the simple and passive "too much, how much production," the market demand-style development of the old road.
Changing the high-risk image with scientific production capacity As China's economic development has relied too much on coal, the coal industry has been unable to shake off the load-bearing climbing development model, and the problems and contradictions have become prominent.
Xie Heping pointed out that in recent years, although China's coal mine safety production has been generally stable and improving, major accidents still occur. More than half of China’s coal production still depends on manual operations. The average level of mechanization in the country is only 45%, and the state-owned key is 82.72%. There are almost no mechanized mining in township coal mines, and more than 2 million miners in the country are still engaged in manual coal mining.
In addition, according to calculations by relevant authorities, China's annual coal mining damages groundwater resources by 2.2 billion cubic meters. Among the 96 state-owned key mining areas in China, water-poor mining areas account for 71%, of which 40% are severely short of water. According to incomplete statistics in 2005, the total land destruction caused by surface subsidence in coal mining areas in China is about 400,000 hectares, and most of them have not been treated.
At the same time, the mining of coal resources is a waste of energy and blind expansion of production capacity. "Mainly because of institutional problems, big ore loses fat and wastes resources; small mines indiscriminately excavate and destroy resources." Xie Heping pointed out that the relative backward production and management methods of township local coal mines are a serious waste of coal resources in China. The main source. However, in recent years, with the increase in the integration of coal companies, the number of coal companies has continued, but there are still phenomena of large enterprises but not strong.
"To change the current high-risk, polluting, extensive, and disorderly image of the coal industry, define the scientific capacity of coal, and promote the development of coal to scientific production capacity are important issues that must be considered and resolved," Xie Heping said.
According to the definitions of academicians of the coal group, scientific capacity refers to the annual production capacity that uses scientific, safe and environmentally friendly methods to maximize the extraction of coal resources under the premise of guaranteeing sustainable development of reserves, and requires resources, human resources, and science and technology. Both equipment and equipment are in place.
The specific indicators of scientific production capacity are: 70% of comprehensive mechanization, 0.1-0.01 million tons of mortality, safety costs will account for a large proportion of production costs, encourage support for mining areas for filling mining, different mining industries should achieve the same time The reclamation rate reached 75% and the coal resource recovery rate was over 45%. The difficult-to-use reserves with complicated conditions and a buried depth greater than 1500 meters were not included in the recoverable reserves for the time being.
"This index system is the scientific capacity." Xie Heping said.
3 billion to 3.5 billion tons of scientific capacity As of the end of 2007, China's coal reserves of about 1,400 billion tons, the total amount has not yet been used 62%. Although the amount of resources remains, Xie Heping pointed out that many objective conditions have restricted the increase of production capacity.
Firstly, the distribution of coal resources is not uniform, and there is little west and east. Second, there is limited space for the improvement of coal production capacity. The shallow coal is basically finished, and the deep coal mining is difficult. Third, the distribution of coal resources is contrary to the distribution of water resources. The local water resources are few, for example, the coal resources rich in the west of the Taihang Mountains account for only 1.6% of the total water resources, and the coal accounts for 21% of the total. In particular, the coal reserves in the Jinningshan and Mengning Districts are 65%, and the water resources only account for 2.6%. Restricted the scientific capacity of coal.
According to the research of the coal group academicians, the coal production capacity under the constraints of China's water resources is expected to be between 3.4 billion and 3.8 billion tons; the production capacity of coal resources under the constraints of the ecological environment is estimated to be 3.92 billion tons.
According to the comprehensive evaluation of the coal resource conditions, in China's coal reserves, only 952.4 billion tons are suitable for mechanized mining. According to the average regional recovery rate of 35%, the suitable production capacity for mechanized mining is 4.762 billion tons. . "And we can achieve a safe and efficient production capacity of 3.5 to 3.8 billion tons." Xie Heping said.
"Overall, we believe that by 2030, the national coal mining capacity in the existing mining areas will reach 1.495 billion to 1.63 billion tons, while the new scientific coal production capacity will be 1.58 billion to 1.89 billion tons, and the optimistic estimate will reach 1.9 to 2.11 billion tons. In 2030, the scientific production capacity can reach about 3 billion to 3.5 billion tons, which will basically meet the demand of coal at that time, and there will be no major changes in coal demand after 2030. Therefore, the total scientific capacity of coal in 2050 will also be maintained at 3 billion. The level of 3.5 billion tons." Xie Heping said.
Scientific production capacity needs policy guarantee According to reports, only one-third of China's current coal production meets the scientific production capacity standard, and 1/3 through scientific and technological transformation and input can reach scientific production capacity, while the remaining one-third is limited due to geological conditions, technology, and other restrictions. Unable to achieve scientific productivity. For this part and the non-reformable part should be phased out gradually.
The coal group academicians proposed the "three-step" implementation principle for implementing scientific coal production capacity. The first step from 2010 to 2020 will be promoted in accordance with the principle of maintaining existing, transforming a batch, and building on a new basis; the second step will fully realize the development goal of the scientific production capacity of the coal industry from 2020 to 2030; the third step will be 2030. From 2050, we strive to achieve the world's leading level in the overall technological level of coal scientific exploitation and various safety and environmental protection indicators.
In order to achieve this goal, Xie Heping proposed four measures.
The first is to establish a sound legal and policy system for the scientific capacity of coal, and to use scientific production standards as the threshold for coal companies. Those that do not meet the scientific productivity standards do not mine, and do not implement safety conditions without mining. Study and formulate financial support and incentive policies for the transformation of the scientific coal production capacity into scientific production capacity, and establish a national compensation mechanism for exploitation of coal's ultra-environmental carrying capacity.
The second is to accelerate the development of the strength of coal large base groups, establish an inspection mechanism, and use scientific capacity indicators and standards as a threshold for the coal industry to shut down and transfer to reorganization and mergers.
The third is to build a support system for science and technology innovation in the coal industry, implement a coal-based strategy for science and education, increase investment in coal energy science and technology, strengthen the cultivation and introduction of coal science and technology talents, increase key technologies in coal science and technology, and accelerate research and development of common key technologies in the coal industry.
The fourth is to strengthen the comprehensive management of coal scientific production capacity implementation. Coal realizes scientific production capacity, and the system reform and coordination management oversight work within the industry has a heavy task, a wide range, and a great degree of difficulty. It is suggested that the State Council establish a special administrative department, or set up a leading group for the national coal science capacity building in the relevant departments of the State Council, put forward specific implementation plans for the national coal scientific production capacity, and organize and coordinate implementation work.
A series of data shows that it is difficult for China's economic growth to rely on coal for a short period of time.
At the same time, another set of data also illustrates the cost of this dependence: In 2009, 2,631 deaths from coal mining accidents occurred in the country, and the death rate per million tons was 0.86, nearly 10 times that of the United States.
Recently, when Qian Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, interviewed a reporter from the Scientific Times, he pointed out that if China only mines 1 billion tons of large-scale coal mines with good geological conditions each year, the death rate per million tons will be comparable to that of the United States.
"That is to say, if we do not mine so much coal, safety is guaranteed," Qian Mingao said. However, in order to meet the growth of energy demand for economic development, over-extraction has become a last resort. From 2000 to 2009, China's coal production increased at an average annual rate of 8.2%.
So, what should be the scientific capacity of coal in China?
At the first China National Academy of Engineering/National Energy Board Energy Forum held on November 18th, Xie Heping, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Engineering “China Energy Medium and Long Term Development Strategy†Consultant Research Group on Coal (hereinafter referred to as the Coal Group) responded: According to the analysis of production capacity under constraints such as resource reserves, safety and efficiency, water resources, and ecological environment, it is recommended that the scientific production capacity suitable for the sustainable development of the coal industry in China from 2030 to 2050 should not exceed 3.8 billion tons.
Xie Heping also appealed: China's coal production in the future can no longer take the simple and passive "too much, how much production," the market demand-style development of the old road.
Changing the high-risk image with scientific production capacity As China's economic development has relied too much on coal, the coal industry has been unable to shake off the load-bearing climbing development model, and the problems and contradictions have become prominent.
Xie Heping pointed out that in recent years, although China's coal mine safety production has been generally stable and improving, major accidents still occur. More than half of China’s coal production still depends on manual operations. The average level of mechanization in the country is only 45%, and the state-owned key is 82.72%. There are almost no mechanized mining in township coal mines, and more than 2 million miners in the country are still engaged in manual coal mining.
In addition, according to calculations by relevant authorities, China's annual coal mining damages groundwater resources by 2.2 billion cubic meters. Among the 96 state-owned key mining areas in China, water-poor mining areas account for 71%, of which 40% are severely short of water. According to incomplete statistics in 2005, the total land destruction caused by surface subsidence in coal mining areas in China is about 400,000 hectares, and most of them have not been treated.
At the same time, the mining of coal resources is a waste of energy and blind expansion of production capacity. "Mainly because of institutional problems, big ore loses fat and wastes resources; small mines indiscriminately excavate and destroy resources." Xie Heping pointed out that the relative backward production and management methods of township local coal mines are a serious waste of coal resources in China. The main source. However, in recent years, with the increase in the integration of coal companies, the number of coal companies has continued, but there are still phenomena of large enterprises but not strong.
"To change the current high-risk, polluting, extensive, and disorderly image of the coal industry, define the scientific capacity of coal, and promote the development of coal to scientific production capacity are important issues that must be considered and resolved," Xie Heping said.
According to the definitions of academicians of the coal group, scientific capacity refers to the annual production capacity that uses scientific, safe and environmentally friendly methods to maximize the extraction of coal resources under the premise of guaranteeing sustainable development of reserves, and requires resources, human resources, and science and technology. Both equipment and equipment are in place.
The specific indicators of scientific production capacity are: 70% of comprehensive mechanization, 0.1-0.01 million tons of mortality, safety costs will account for a large proportion of production costs, encourage support for mining areas for filling mining, different mining industries should achieve the same time The reclamation rate reached 75% and the coal resource recovery rate was over 45%. The difficult-to-use reserves with complicated conditions and a buried depth greater than 1500 meters were not included in the recoverable reserves for the time being.
"This index system is the scientific capacity." Xie Heping said.
3 billion to 3.5 billion tons of scientific capacity As of the end of 2007, China's coal reserves of about 1,400 billion tons, the total amount has not yet been used 62%. Although the amount of resources remains, Xie Heping pointed out that many objective conditions have restricted the increase of production capacity.
Firstly, the distribution of coal resources is not uniform, and there is little west and east. Second, there is limited space for the improvement of coal production capacity. The shallow coal is basically finished, and the deep coal mining is difficult. Third, the distribution of coal resources is contrary to the distribution of water resources. The local water resources are few, for example, the coal resources rich in the west of the Taihang Mountains account for only 1.6% of the total water resources, and the coal accounts for 21% of the total. In particular, the coal reserves in the Jinningshan and Mengning Districts are 65%, and the water resources only account for 2.6%. Restricted the scientific capacity of coal.
According to the research of the coal group academicians, the coal production capacity under the constraints of China's water resources is expected to be between 3.4 billion and 3.8 billion tons; the production capacity of coal resources under the constraints of the ecological environment is estimated to be 3.92 billion tons.
According to the comprehensive evaluation of the coal resource conditions, in China's coal reserves, only 952.4 billion tons are suitable for mechanized mining. According to the average regional recovery rate of 35%, the suitable production capacity for mechanized mining is 4.762 billion tons. . "And we can achieve a safe and efficient production capacity of 3.5 to 3.8 billion tons." Xie Heping said.
"Overall, we believe that by 2030, the national coal mining capacity in the existing mining areas will reach 1.495 billion to 1.63 billion tons, while the new scientific coal production capacity will be 1.58 billion to 1.89 billion tons, and the optimistic estimate will reach 1.9 to 2.11 billion tons. In 2030, the scientific production capacity can reach about 3 billion to 3.5 billion tons, which will basically meet the demand of coal at that time, and there will be no major changes in coal demand after 2030. Therefore, the total scientific capacity of coal in 2050 will also be maintained at 3 billion. The level of 3.5 billion tons." Xie Heping said.
Scientific production capacity needs policy guarantee According to reports, only one-third of China's current coal production meets the scientific production capacity standard, and 1/3 through scientific and technological transformation and input can reach scientific production capacity, while the remaining one-third is limited due to geological conditions, technology, and other restrictions. Unable to achieve scientific productivity. For this part and the non-reformable part should be phased out gradually.
The coal group academicians proposed the "three-step" implementation principle for implementing scientific coal production capacity. The first step from 2010 to 2020 will be promoted in accordance with the principle of maintaining existing, transforming a batch, and building on a new basis; the second step will fully realize the development goal of the scientific production capacity of the coal industry from 2020 to 2030; the third step will be 2030. From 2050, we strive to achieve the world's leading level in the overall technological level of coal scientific exploitation and various safety and environmental protection indicators.
In order to achieve this goal, Xie Heping proposed four measures.
The first is to establish a sound legal and policy system for the scientific capacity of coal, and to use scientific production standards as the threshold for coal companies. Those that do not meet the scientific productivity standards do not mine, and do not implement safety conditions without mining. Study and formulate financial support and incentive policies for the transformation of the scientific coal production capacity into scientific production capacity, and establish a national compensation mechanism for exploitation of coal's ultra-environmental carrying capacity.
The second is to accelerate the development of the strength of coal large base groups, establish an inspection mechanism, and use scientific capacity indicators and standards as a threshold for the coal industry to shut down and transfer to reorganization and mergers.
The third is to build a support system for science and technology innovation in the coal industry, implement a coal-based strategy for science and education, increase investment in coal energy science and technology, strengthen the cultivation and introduction of coal science and technology talents, increase key technologies in coal science and technology, and accelerate research and development of common key technologies in the coal industry.
The fourth is to strengthen the comprehensive management of coal scientific production capacity implementation. Coal realizes scientific production capacity, and the system reform and coordination management oversight work within the industry has a heavy task, a wide range, and a great degree of difficulty. It is suggested that the State Council establish a special administrative department, or set up a leading group for the national coal science capacity building in the relevant departments of the State Council, put forward specific implementation plans for the national coal scientific production capacity, and organize and coordinate implementation work.
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