Analysis of the Fourth Quarter Supply Pressure of Plastic City

As the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day approach, the festival atmosphere of the Chinese people has been strong outside the atmosphere, but it seems very difficult for the polyolefin market to be infected. In an atmosphere of long and short confrontation, the market continued to consolidate and calm for a few days, and it also consumed most of the patience of the industry. In the face of limited supply of spot resources and insufficient demand, the sellers were reluctant to sell their buyers at a low price. Both sides have fallen into a lasting psychological game and are almost alone. As a result, the market's upward momentum may appear to be insufficiently motivated.

People say that there will be no danger of falling for a long time. Xiao Bian believes that with the increase in pre-sales of domestic petrochemical companies and distributors, the increase in merchants’ intent to purchase will be unavoidable, coupled with the recent intensification of “energy saving and emission reduction” and “power cuts and restrictions”, and the demand for terminal factories will be blocked. Obviously, it is possible to adjust downwards for polyolefin prices. In addition, many companies are currently worried about the increase in domestic polypropylene supply in the fourth quarter. There is a serious lack of confidence. Therefore, Xiao Bian may wish to open new PP equipment in the near future under this inventory. If this cannot be avoided, it should be bravely faced.

1. Baotou Shenhua: Baotou Shenhua Coal Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. was jointly funded by Shenhua Group Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Huayi Group Co., Ltd. with an investment ratio of 76:24. Its coal-to-olefins project is located in Inner Mongolia, including 1.8 million tons of gas per year. Chemical methanol plant, 600,000 tons/year MTO plant, 300,000 tons/year polypropylene plant and 300,000 tons/year polyethylene plant. According to relevant news, Baotou Shenhua succeeded in producing qualified PP and PE particles on August 15 and August 19 respectively after the successful trial of the MTO plant in early August, one and a half months earlier than originally planned. Currently, the operating rate of equipment for coal-to-olefins projects is between 70 and 80%. Since the production of some plants is still unstable, it is expected that the start-up load will remain at this level for a period of time in the future. According to the latest news, the plant will implement the plan in the near future. Internal parking, so that the start of work will stabilize as soon as possible.

2. Guangxi Petrochemical: PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical invested 1 billion yuan, located in Qinzhou, Guangxi, and its polypropylene pellet design production capacity was 200,000 tons/year. The project began construction in mid-2008 and was officially put into operation in September 2010 until In mid-September, the pelletizing plant operated stably.

3. Datang International: Datang International Coal to Olefin Project is the first international large-scale industrialized application of coal to methanol to produce propylene. Its PP plant capacity is 460,000 tons/year, and Unipol PP technology from DOW Chemicals is used. , is China's first example of the introduction of the technology of the production enterprises, the device was originally scheduled to put into production in the fourth quarter of 2009, when the production can include homopolymer, random and anti-impact full series of 120 brands of polypropylene products. However, the reason why the coal-to-olefins component of the upper reaches of the train had not been tested was delayed, the latest news said that the device will be fully operational by October this year.

4. Dagang Petrochemical: A subsidiary of PetroChina, the unit is designed with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year. According to the latest news, it plans to drive in October this year.

5. Qingyang Petrochemical: The same subsidiary under the CNPC, the device is located in Qingyang City, Gansu Province, the design capacity of 100,000 tons / year, according to the latest news plans to drive in October.

6. Ningxia Shenhua: Under Shenhuaning Coal Group Co., Ltd., the olefin project is a key project for the planning and construction of the coal chemical base (A zone) of Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base. The annual coal consumption of the project is about 5.26 million tons. The annual intermediate product methanol is 1.67 million tons, the final product polypropylene is 500,000 tons/year, the by-product gasoline is 184,800 tons/year, the liquid fuel is 41,200 tons/year, and the **1.38 million tons. /year. The main process technologies include German Siemens dry pulverized coal gasification process, German Lurgi low temperature methanol wash, methanol synthesis and MTP process, ABB polypropylene process, and finally a world-class large-scale coal chemical project using coal as raw material. The total investment of the new project is 13.2 billion yuan. It was approved and started construction in 2007. It includes a 1.6 million-ton/year methanol plant, a 500,000-ton/year polypropylene plant and four additional production facilities. It is expected that by the end of 2010, the whole process will be opened for trial feeding.

In fact, it appears roughly that although the first two units have been successfully driven, it still takes some time before the current installation operation is stable. In particular, the coal-to-olefins project may be followed in the future because of inexperience. There are still some unforeseen problems in the circulation of the market. For the next four devices that have not been turned on, most of the production capacity is also concentrated on coal-to-olefins. Therefore, Xiaobian personally believes that in fact, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may not necessarily come from new expansion forces. At most, attention must be paid to such as Dushanzi Petrochemical and Zhongsha. Petrochemicals, Zhenhai Refinery, and Panjin Ethylene have opened up new installations. While this part of supply capacity has gradually or more stable, the market has already had a period of adaptation and the bad news has been released ahead of time. Prove that: Since the release of new production capacity in the second half of 2009, the polypropylene market has been tested for several times, many of which are unusual factors such as oil prices, diving, etc., but the domestic PP market is still not clear. Therefore, Xiao Bian believes that although the supply pressure in the fourth quarter has increased, it may be more moderate, and the market may not need to worry too much about this.

On the contrary, if all the people in the world have lost confidence in the market due to their difficulties and support, there will be short-selling or low-inventory operations on the one hand, and it is believed that there is no need for Xiao Bian to say anything more. As previously analyzed, if the price of polypropylene continued to drop to a certain low level before the holiday and led to the factory's centralized replenishment, the market did not even rule out a wave of small rebounds. After all, the fact that the market does not follow the usual rules is not without it. The truth is here and the time can be tested.