Overcapacity in production capacity accelerates integration
At the solar photovoltaic market and equipment manufacturing forum held on December 18th, Shi Dinghua, chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, appealed to many PV companies. PV companies need to adjust their development strategies according to market conditions at the end of this year. There may be a period of overcapacity. After this year's rapid growth, next year can be seen as a year of adjustment for the photovoltaic industry.
Year of adjustment next year
Since the beginning of this year, due to the unexpectedly near-doubling growth rate of the photovoltaic market, the production boom including crystalline silicon, silicon wafers and battery components has been wavering. Statistics show that in 2011, the number of battery manufacturers with a capacity of more than 1 GW has reached 11, and the battery-to-component industry chain may have a phased surplus due to the concentrated release of production capacity.
Shi Dinghuan said that the photovoltaic development goal set by China's photovoltaic industry development plan is to achieve 20GW installed capacity by 2020, and according to the current capacity increase rate, it is likely to reach 50GW by 2020.
A photovoltaic product manufacturer said that China's solar cells are expected to reach 35G production capacity next year, but global demand will not exceed 20G by then, it can be seen that if all domestic production capacity will be 50% surplus. It is expected that the photovoltaic industry chain will be concentrated upstream, small and medium-sized, hundreds of component factories, large-area component factories will become the hardest hit areas, and the battery is relatively overcapacity. The biggest impact is the enterprises far from the terminal market and relatively small scale.
On the one hand, the enthusiasm for the production of photovoltaic products in all links is high, and on the other hand, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has yet to be further reduced.
It is understood that the current cost of photovoltaic power generation in China is 15,000-20000 yuan per kilowatt. Although it has been greatly reduced compared with previous years, the overall situation is still relatively high. This year, due to the strong demand in the international photovoltaic market, the price of photovoltaic products has not appeared. The sharp decline has not contributed much to the cost of photovoltaic power generation, and it is necessary to reduce costs in all aspects in the future.
Shi Dinghuan said that the future development strategy for the photovoltaic industry should not only be based on the establishment of large-scale photovoltaic power plants, but also promote various forms of photovoltaic applications, such as focusing on promoting solar thermal utilization in rural areas and cooperating with smart grids. Energy development, etc.
Market integration may dominate state-owned enterprises
Faced with the uncertainties in the demand for the international PV market next year, many domestic companies that are investing in PV products are likely to face the challenge of extending the investment return period in the short term. Some experts predict that the market supply and demand will largely limit the sales volume and gross profit margin of PV manufacturers, and the price of PV products will fall further next year.
As a result, market integration is difficult to avoid, and manufacturers with smaller strength or workshop-style PV products will face great operational pressures, and in market consolidation, state-owned enterprises are likely to once again take advantage.
Analysts said that on the one hand, state-owned enterprises have strong financial strength, and the deadline for investment returns is not too high, and they can build a complete photovoltaic industry chain, for example, from crystalline silicon to silicon wafers to batteries to power stations, each extending an industry. Chain links can alleviate the tax burden of one link and increase the gross profit margin of a link. Therefore, the enthusiasm of state-owned enterprises to get through the industrial chain is relatively high; on the other hand, whether it is in government-led PV bidding or government-advanced PV subsidy projects The degree of favor of state-owned enterprises has far exceeded that of private enterprises.
At the solar photovoltaic market and equipment manufacturing forum held on December 18th, Shi Dinghua, chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, appealed to many PV companies. PV companies need to adjust their development strategies according to market conditions at the end of this year. There may be a period of overcapacity. After this year's rapid growth, next year can be seen as a year of adjustment for the photovoltaic industry.
Year of adjustment next year
Since the beginning of this year, due to the unexpectedly near-doubling growth rate of the photovoltaic market, the production boom including crystalline silicon, silicon wafers and battery components has been wavering. Statistics show that in 2011, the number of battery manufacturers with a capacity of more than 1 GW has reached 11, and the battery-to-component industry chain may have a phased surplus due to the concentrated release of production capacity.
Shi Dinghuan said that the photovoltaic development goal set by China's photovoltaic industry development plan is to achieve 20GW installed capacity by 2020, and according to the current capacity increase rate, it is likely to reach 50GW by 2020.
A photovoltaic product manufacturer said that China's solar cells are expected to reach 35G production capacity next year, but global demand will not exceed 20G by then, it can be seen that if all domestic production capacity will be 50% surplus. It is expected that the photovoltaic industry chain will be concentrated upstream, small and medium-sized, hundreds of component factories, large-area component factories will become the hardest hit areas, and the battery is relatively overcapacity. The biggest impact is the enterprises far from the terminal market and relatively small scale.
On the one hand, the enthusiasm for the production of photovoltaic products in all links is high, and on the other hand, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has yet to be further reduced.
It is understood that the current cost of photovoltaic power generation in China is 15,000-20000 yuan per kilowatt. Although it has been greatly reduced compared with previous years, the overall situation is still relatively high. This year, due to the strong demand in the international photovoltaic market, the price of photovoltaic products has not appeared. The sharp decline has not contributed much to the cost of photovoltaic power generation, and it is necessary to reduce costs in all aspects in the future.
Shi Dinghuan said that the future development strategy for the photovoltaic industry should not only be based on the establishment of large-scale photovoltaic power plants, but also promote various forms of photovoltaic applications, such as focusing on promoting solar thermal utilization in rural areas and cooperating with smart grids. Energy development, etc.
Market integration may dominate state-owned enterprises
Faced with the uncertainties in the demand for the international PV market next year, many domestic companies that are investing in PV products are likely to face the challenge of extending the investment return period in the short term. Some experts predict that the market supply and demand will largely limit the sales volume and gross profit margin of PV manufacturers, and the price of PV products will fall further next year.
As a result, market integration is difficult to avoid, and manufacturers with smaller strength or workshop-style PV products will face great operational pressures, and in market consolidation, state-owned enterprises are likely to once again take advantage.
Analysts said that on the one hand, state-owned enterprises have strong financial strength, and the deadline for investment returns is not too high, and they can build a complete photovoltaic industry chain, for example, from crystalline silicon to silicon wafers to batteries to power stations, each extending an industry. Chain links can alleviate the tax burden of one link and increase the gross profit margin of a link. Therefore, the enthusiasm of state-owned enterprises to get through the industrial chain is relatively high; on the other hand, whether it is in government-led PV bidding or government-advanced PV subsidy projects The degree of favor of state-owned enterprises has far exceeded that of private enterprises.
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