Shanghai aluminum shocks rose on Monday, the main contract AL0506 gapped higher open, in the afternoon by the strong impact of Shanghai copper began to increase volume, to close at 16,930 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton. Since the implementation of macro-control in May last year, the huge domestic production capacity has weighed heavily on aluminum prices, and aluminum prices have been hovering around their production costs. At present, the domestic production capacity is still as high as 9.5 million tons, and the operating capacity is also about 8 million tons. Therefore, it has been difficult for aluminum prices to continue rising. However, the global demand for aluminum is still very strong, and inventory is still declining in the near future. In 2004, LME aluminum stocks fell by 66.3 million tons. This year, the inventory of the previous quarter fell by 140,000 tons. Now LME's aluminum stocks are only 540,000 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio has reached the critical point of 6.5 weeks. At the same time, the spot premium of aluminum is relatively strong. Especially in North America, the spot aluminum premium has risen sharply to around 180 US dollars. Even if China exports more Asian regions, the spot premium is still high, which fully reflects the fact that spot supply has begun to become tense. situation. It is worth noting that, as last year's shortage of copper concentrate limited the production of copper, the lack of supply of alumina in 2005 will also lead to the rapid growth of global aluminum production. At present, the price of imported port alumina has risen to 4,900 yuan/ton. First-line, and there is little supply of spot alumina. With declining inventory, high spot premiums and shortages of alumina supply, LME aluminum is expected to continue to rise. Shanghai aluminum prices will also follow LME aluminum price volatility. Technically, after the rebound in recent days, Shanghai Aluminum's price has broken through the short-term moving average and investors can consider buying on a bargain. â–¡ Liu Huiyuan News Morning News Bull's Bull Futures
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