According to the analysis of the National Information Center, in 2009, due to major changes in the domestic and international economic environment, the growth rate of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will inevitably be adjusted, but the adjustment of the domestic economic structure is deepening, and the requirements for industrial technology upgrading are enhanced. The acceleration of the urbanization process and the increasing policy of the country to expand domestic demand will be a long-term factor in promoting the development of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. In general, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will maintain a certain growth rate.
1. Economic structural upgrading and technological progress are the fundamental factors for promoting the long-term stable development of machinery and equipment manufacturing. In the long run, industrial restructuring and technological upgrading will be one of the main lines of China's national economic development, product structure adjustment and production process in various industries. The improvement, the technical transformation of equipment and equipment, the automation and the development and use of large-scale complete sets of equipment all require the advanced and modern production equipment of the mechanical equipment industry to improve the modernization level of the national economy, while the national economic sustainable development strategy proposes energy-saving The investment in environmentally-friendly production equipment is the focus of investment, and the mechanical equipment industry is also required to provide safer and more advanced production equipment. Many industrial fields such as power, petrochemical, metallurgy, coal, textile, light industry, building materials, etc. need more efficient, automated and clean production equipment in the construction of new projects to improve the technological content and added value of products. In addition, in the transportation industry such as roads and transportation, the demand for the variety, level, quality and performance of mechanical products will be greatly improved in promoting structural adjustment and promoting industrial upgrading. It is efficient, energy-saving, low-pollution, intelligent, and complete. Mechanical products such as chemistry will gradually become the mainstream of the market. At the same time, the machinery industry itself requires industrial upgrading and technological transformation, as well as a large number of advanced processing equipment and testing equipment. The market competition is intensifying and the speed of technological upgrading of enterprises is accelerating. The investment in technological transformation of enterprises will maintain a certain scale. At the same time, the policy support of the state will encourage enterprises to increase the investment intensity of new equipment. The domestic demand for high-precision mechanical equipment products will Increasing. Therefore, the structural adjustment of the national economy and industrial upgrading will form a large demand for the machinery and equipment industry in a long period of time.
2. The rising energy and raw material prices will slow down, and the industry's cost pressure will be reduced. 2008 is a year of rapid increase in energy and raw material prices, which has caused certain cost pressures on the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and affected the growth rate of the industry's economic benefits. However, as the momentum of overheating of the national economy has been effectively curbed, and the international economic situation has shown signs of slowing down due to the spread of the US financial crisis, the development of the world economy will slow down, and the growth rate of demand for energy raw materials will also slow down. This will limit the upward trend of energy raw material prices to a certain extent. At present, the price of crude oil in the international market has rapidly declined from a high level. The rise in the prices of steel and non-ferrous metals has come to an end. As concerns about the future world economic growth situation intensify, the price of energy raw materials will rise again and lack momentum in the short term. The small fluctuations, the overall cost of the future mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will not be further aggravated, but will be reduced, which is conducive to the industry to maintain a certain profit growth.
As a relatively high-tech industry, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has a strong ability to withstand rising energy and raw materials prices. Although the profit growth rate has dropped significantly since 2008, it still shows a good level of economic benefits. The growth rate and profitability of the future machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will depend more on the added value level of products and the speed of technological progress. This is an important basis for the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry to maintain stable growth in the face of volatile energy and raw material prices.
3. Rural economic development has provided new market opportunities for agricultural equipment. In the past two years, there has been a new hot spot in the demand for machinery products, and the growth rate of agricultural machinery has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. With the implementation of various preferential policies for agriculture, especially the increase in subsidies for agricultural materials, the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase agricultural machinery has been enhanced, which has effectively promoted the sustainable development of agricultural machinery. After the Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, the state once again increased the subsidies for agricultural production materials, and at the same time liberalized the transfer of rural land use rights, encouraged the concentration of land to large-scale farming, and developed economies of scale, which will effectively promote the demand for agricultural production machinery. increase.
After years of hard work, the state has strengthened the transformation process of rural power grids. The improvement of rural electricity consumption has greatly promoted farmers' demand for small-scale agricultural machinery and irrigation equipment, improved the use conditions of agricultural machinery, and made the development of agricultural machinery faster. . In the future, the adjustment of agricultural and rural economic structure will continue to increase, and agricultural production methods will continue to enhance the level of mechanization and modernization to improve agricultural production efficiency. In this process, higher demand for agricultural machinery and equipment will be proposed. With the deepening of rural economic system reform and the increasing degree of marketization in the field of agricultural product circulation, the production, storage, processing, transportation and other aspects of agricultural products need to continuously improve the level of mechanization. At the same time, facility agriculture, green agriculture, water-saving irrigation agriculture, etc. will China's economically developed regions are accelerating their growth, and the requirements for equipment will be further improved.
4. Exports of mechanical products continue to grow as a major machinery industry. Some mechanical products with comparative advantages in China still have great export potential, such as small and medium-sized agricultural machinery, medium-power engineering machinery, ordinary machine tools, mid-range scientific testing instruments, optical instruments and other products in the international market. There are larger markets on the market. In particular, China has increased the implementation of the “going out strategyâ€, encouraged enterprises to develop foreign engineering contracting and cooperation, and made great progress in the development of economic and technological cooperation projects. These advances will greatly promote the export of related machinery products. Although the spread of the US financial crisis will have a certain impact on the growth of the world economy, especially in developed countries, the economic growth of the country is facing a certain dilemma. However, the export market of China's machinery products is largely a market of developing countries and emerging countries. These economies The development potential of itself is still very large, and the demand for China's machinery products will still maintain a certain growth, and will drive the export growth rate of China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry to maintain a certain level.
5. Expanding domestic demand and implementing the strategy of developing the western region will drive the growth of demand for machinery products. With the steady development of the western development plan, the West-East Power Transmission Project and the West-East Gas Transmission Project have greatly promoted the development of power generation equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment. The growth of a large number of general machinery; the construction of infrastructure projects such as highways, railways, buildings, water conservancy, electric power, and airports in the west has provided new development opportunities for the construction of construction machinery and related professional equipment. In particular, in the face of the impact of the global economic downturn on the domestic economy, the state will increase investment in infrastructure and introduce a cumulative investment stimulus plan of 4 trillion yuan, which will effectively boost domestic demand growth. It can be expected that in the process of comprehensively promoting modernization, infrastructure investment and construction will be a long-term process, which will make the domestic machinery and equipment industry always in a relatively favorable development environment.
In general, the demand for machinery and equipment will grow steadily for a long period of time in the future, but the demand structure will continue to adjust and change. The demand for general products will decline, and the situation of overcapacity will become more serious. The demand for high-precision products, technological modern products and new-field products will continue to rise.
1. Economic structural upgrading and technological progress are the fundamental factors for promoting the long-term stable development of machinery and equipment manufacturing. In the long run, industrial restructuring and technological upgrading will be one of the main lines of China's national economic development, product structure adjustment and production process in various industries. The improvement, the technical transformation of equipment and equipment, the automation and the development and use of large-scale complete sets of equipment all require the advanced and modern production equipment of the mechanical equipment industry to improve the modernization level of the national economy, while the national economic sustainable development strategy proposes energy-saving The investment in environmentally-friendly production equipment is the focus of investment, and the mechanical equipment industry is also required to provide safer and more advanced production equipment. Many industrial fields such as power, petrochemical, metallurgy, coal, textile, light industry, building materials, etc. need more efficient, automated and clean production equipment in the construction of new projects to improve the technological content and added value of products. In addition, in the transportation industry such as roads and transportation, the demand for the variety, level, quality and performance of mechanical products will be greatly improved in promoting structural adjustment and promoting industrial upgrading. It is efficient, energy-saving, low-pollution, intelligent, and complete. Mechanical products such as chemistry will gradually become the mainstream of the market. At the same time, the machinery industry itself requires industrial upgrading and technological transformation, as well as a large number of advanced processing equipment and testing equipment. The market competition is intensifying and the speed of technological upgrading of enterprises is accelerating. The investment in technological transformation of enterprises will maintain a certain scale. At the same time, the policy support of the state will encourage enterprises to increase the investment intensity of new equipment. The domestic demand for high-precision mechanical equipment products will Increasing. Therefore, the structural adjustment of the national economy and industrial upgrading will form a large demand for the machinery and equipment industry in a long period of time.
2. The rising energy and raw material prices will slow down, and the industry's cost pressure will be reduced. 2008 is a year of rapid increase in energy and raw material prices, which has caused certain cost pressures on the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and affected the growth rate of the industry's economic benefits. However, as the momentum of overheating of the national economy has been effectively curbed, and the international economic situation has shown signs of slowing down due to the spread of the US financial crisis, the development of the world economy will slow down, and the growth rate of demand for energy raw materials will also slow down. This will limit the upward trend of energy raw material prices to a certain extent. At present, the price of crude oil in the international market has rapidly declined from a high level. The rise in the prices of steel and non-ferrous metals has come to an end. As concerns about the future world economic growth situation intensify, the price of energy raw materials will rise again and lack momentum in the short term. The small fluctuations, the overall cost of the future mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will not be further aggravated, but will be reduced, which is conducive to the industry to maintain a certain profit growth.
As a relatively high-tech industry, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has a strong ability to withstand rising energy and raw materials prices. Although the profit growth rate has dropped significantly since 2008, it still shows a good level of economic benefits. The growth rate and profitability of the future machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will depend more on the added value level of products and the speed of technological progress. This is an important basis for the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry to maintain stable growth in the face of volatile energy and raw material prices.
3. Rural economic development has provided new market opportunities for agricultural equipment. In the past two years, there has been a new hot spot in the demand for machinery products, and the growth rate of agricultural machinery has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. With the implementation of various preferential policies for agriculture, especially the increase in subsidies for agricultural materials, the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase agricultural machinery has been enhanced, which has effectively promoted the sustainable development of agricultural machinery. After the Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, the state once again increased the subsidies for agricultural production materials, and at the same time liberalized the transfer of rural land use rights, encouraged the concentration of land to large-scale farming, and developed economies of scale, which will effectively promote the demand for agricultural production machinery. increase.
After years of hard work, the state has strengthened the transformation process of rural power grids. The improvement of rural electricity consumption has greatly promoted farmers' demand for small-scale agricultural machinery and irrigation equipment, improved the use conditions of agricultural machinery, and made the development of agricultural machinery faster. . In the future, the adjustment of agricultural and rural economic structure will continue to increase, and agricultural production methods will continue to enhance the level of mechanization and modernization to improve agricultural production efficiency. In this process, higher demand for agricultural machinery and equipment will be proposed. With the deepening of rural economic system reform and the increasing degree of marketization in the field of agricultural product circulation, the production, storage, processing, transportation and other aspects of agricultural products need to continuously improve the level of mechanization. At the same time, facility agriculture, green agriculture, water-saving irrigation agriculture, etc. will China's economically developed regions are accelerating their growth, and the requirements for equipment will be further improved.
4. Exports of mechanical products continue to grow as a major machinery industry. Some mechanical products with comparative advantages in China still have great export potential, such as small and medium-sized agricultural machinery, medium-power engineering machinery, ordinary machine tools, mid-range scientific testing instruments, optical instruments and other products in the international market. There are larger markets on the market. In particular, China has increased the implementation of the “going out strategyâ€, encouraged enterprises to develop foreign engineering contracting and cooperation, and made great progress in the development of economic and technological cooperation projects. These advances will greatly promote the export of related machinery products. Although the spread of the US financial crisis will have a certain impact on the growth of the world economy, especially in developed countries, the economic growth of the country is facing a certain dilemma. However, the export market of China's machinery products is largely a market of developing countries and emerging countries. These economies The development potential of itself is still very large, and the demand for China's machinery products will still maintain a certain growth, and will drive the export growth rate of China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry to maintain a certain level.
5. Expanding domestic demand and implementing the strategy of developing the western region will drive the growth of demand for machinery products. With the steady development of the western development plan, the West-East Power Transmission Project and the West-East Gas Transmission Project have greatly promoted the development of power generation equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment. The growth of a large number of general machinery; the construction of infrastructure projects such as highways, railways, buildings, water conservancy, electric power, and airports in the west has provided new development opportunities for the construction of construction machinery and related professional equipment. In particular, in the face of the impact of the global economic downturn on the domestic economy, the state will increase investment in infrastructure and introduce a cumulative investment stimulus plan of 4 trillion yuan, which will effectively boost domestic demand growth. It can be expected that in the process of comprehensively promoting modernization, infrastructure investment and construction will be a long-term process, which will make the domestic machinery and equipment industry always in a relatively favorable development environment.
In general, the demand for machinery and equipment will grow steadily for a long period of time in the future, but the demand structure will continue to adjust and change. The demand for general products will decline, and the situation of overcapacity will become more serious. The demand for high-precision products, technological modern products and new-field products will continue to rise.
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