On January 20, the Ministry of Commerce issued a final decision on the import of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. From now on, the import of solar grade polysilicon originating in the United States and South Korea will be subject to a 2.4%-57% anti-dumping duty and a 0%-2.1% countervailing duty.
Industry experts said that after the final ruling results are announced, the polysilicon produced in the United States will be difficult to enter the Chinese market directly, but it can still enter China through processing trade and entrepot trade. Although China imposes a high “double-reverse†tax on US and Korean polysilicon, it is difficult to increase the price of polysilicon in the future due to the oversupply situation in the domestic market.
It is difficult to directly enter the Chinese market for the production of polysilicon in the United States.
On January 20, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice stating that the investigation authority finally ruled that the imported solar-grade polysilicon originating in the United States and South Korea was dumped and subsidized. The solar-grade polysilicon industry in China was substantially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage. relationship.
The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has made a decision based on the recommendations of the investigation authority. Since January 20, 2014, anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties have been imposed on imported solar grade polysilicon originating in the United States and South Korea. The anti-dumping tax rate is 2.4%-57%, and the countervailing duty rate is 0%-2.1%.
The anti-dumping tax rate imposed by China in South Korea is significantly lower than that imposed on the United States. In addition to the high anti-dumping duties of 48.7% imposed by InnovationSilicon Co., Ltd and KAM Corp in South Korea, the remaining anti-dumping duties are 2.4%-12.3%. The anti-dumping tax rate imposed on US polysilicon companies is 53.3%-57%.
The Ministry of Commerce announced the results of the preliminary ruling in July 2013. The preliminary ruling determined that the dumping margin for imports of polysilicon from the United States was 53.3% to 57%, and the dumping margin for imports from South Korea was 2.4% to 8.7%. The final result is basically consistent with the preliminary result.
Wang Shijiang, deputy director of the Electronic Information Industry Institute of China Electronics and Information Industry Development Institute, said that China has imposed an anti-dumping duty of 53.3%-57% on the United States, and it is difficult for US polysilicon products to enter the Chinese market. China’s high anti-dumping duties on US exports are also counter-measures against the US’s ongoing “double-reverse†investigation of PV modules produced in China. In November 2011, the US Department of Commerce proposed a “double-reverse†investigation on China’s exports of photovoltaic cells to the United States, and in December 2012 announced an anti-dumping duty of 18.32% to 249.96% on Chinese-made crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, and 14.78% to 15.97% countervailing duty. Since then, mainland component manufacturers have been circumventing the "double-reverse" tax by importing the battery portion of the module from Taiwan.
Core Tip: On the 20th of the month, the Ministry of Commerce issued a final decision on the import of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Industry experts said that after the final ruling results are announced, the polysilicon produced in the United States will be difficult to enter the Chinese market directly, but it can still enter China through processing trade and entrepot trade.
The United States and South Korea may circumvent the expected import volume of 40,000 tons next year by means of processing trade and entrepot trade.
In July and September 2013, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary decision on the import of solar grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. The preliminary ruling determined that the dumping margin of polysilicon imported from the United States was 53.3% to 57%, and the dumping margin from South Korea was 2.4% to 48.7%. The tax rate for the provisional countervailing duty deposit is 0 to 6.5%.
According to the report of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's imports of polysilicon amounted to 72,000 tons from January to November 2013. It is estimated that the annual import volume will reach 79,000 tons, indicating that foreign dumping is still serious after the preliminary results are announced. China's polysilicon imports in November were 7,914 tons, an increase of 48.5% from the previous month. Among them, the import volume of processing trade was 5,619 tons, an increase of 39.1% from the previous month, and the proportion of total imports was as high as 71%, indicating that polysilicon is gradually entering China in the form of processing trade.
Wang Shijiang said that at present, a considerable portion of the polysilicon produced in the United States has entered China in the form of processing trade. Although China's anti-dumping duties of 53.3%-57% on the production of polysilicon in the United States will make it difficult to directly enter China, the US polysilicon can still enter China through processing trade.
Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Society, said that at present, China has already proposed polysilicon enterprises, and hopes that the government will control the polysilicon products entering the country by means of processing trade through taxation and other means.
In addition, it is worthy of concern in the industry that the amount of polysilicon that was imported through Taiwan in November reached 792 tons, an increase of 27.1% from the previous month, accounting for 10.0% of the total imports. Re-export trade may also become a new measure for the US and South Korea to avoid trade barriers.
At the same time, the report of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows that despite the mild recovery of polysilicon industry in 2013, some imported polysilicon prices are lower than the production costs of global polysilicon enterprises. Domestic polysilicon enterprises continue to bear tremendous pressure, before “double anti†Compared to no improvement. At the end of 2013, about 13 polysilicon enterprises in China resumed production, and the price of polysilicon rose moderately from 120,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2012 to 135,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2013.
Meng Xianyu said that China's polysilicon imports have been declining year by year. It is estimated that the amount of polysilicon imports will be around 40,000 tons in 2014, and domestic production is expected to be around 100,000 tons. In 2014, China's demand for polysilicon was about 140,000 tons.
Core Tip: On the 20th of the month, the Ministry of Commerce issued a final decision on the import of solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Industry experts said that after the final ruling results are announced, the polysilicon produced in the United States will be difficult to enter the Chinese market directly, but it can still enter China through processing trade and entrepot trade.
Domestic polysilicon prices are hard to rise in 2014
Wang Shijiang believes that in 2014, domestic polysilicon prices are difficult to rise and may remain at around US$20/kg. The main reasons are the following:
First, domestic polysilicon is still oversupply, and polysilicon prices are difficult to rise. In 2013, some domestic polysilicon enterprises resumed production, and tentatively raised their prices, in order to get out of the haze. Therefore, since the second quarter, domestic polysilicon production has gradually increased, but the downstream itself has insufficient demand and does not accept price increases. Moreover, polysilicon has the characteristics of large chemical industry, and once the whole device is turned on, it must be continuously and stably operated. Therefore, once the pipeline is turned on, it will run even if there is no order. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the photovoltaic industry saw a wave of rushing, and the installed capacity in the fourth quarter only reached 8 GW. Many polysilicon producers are in an overloaded state in the fourth quarter, and all previously idle pipelines are all open. At the end of 2013, the tide of rushing to install will end, and the installed capacity in 2014 will be significantly reduced compared with the fourth quarter of 2013, but the opened production line cannot be stopped in the short term. Therefore, polysilicon production will increase sharply in 2014. The report of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association even predicts that polysilicon may have a new round of price declines due to excessive supply.
Second, the downward adjustment of PV subsidies is a trend, and the reduction of terminal subsidies will eventually suppress the price of upstream polysilicon. If the subsidy for the power station is lowered this year, it will inevitably reduce the profit of the downstream power station. The price of the components required for the construction of the power station will inevitably be depressed, and the price of the raw material polysilicon for the production components will also be suppressed.
Third, advances in polysilicon production technology in the international market have also contributed to the decline in polysilicon costs. South Korea's polysilicon giants MEMC, OCI, etc. have been engaged in price wars, and it is very likely that the cost of polysilicon production will be further reduced to less than $10/kg through technology research and development, thus continuing to suppress domestic polysilicon prices.
Fourth, although China imposes a high anti-dumping duty on polysilicon exported from the United States, the US-exported polysilicon can still circumvent punitive tariffs through processing trade and entrepot trade. The phenomenon of low-priced dumping of imported polysilicon is still difficult to contain.
Based on the above factors, although China has imposed a high anti-dumping duty on polysilicon exported from the United States and South Korea, the spot price of domestic polysilicon in 2014 is still difficult to recover sharply in the short term.
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