On September 29th, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said yesterday that the installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation in China will reach 50GW or even 100GW by 2020. This figure will increase by 25-50 times compared with this year's 2GW. “The number of projects that have already started this year has reached 3G W, and the number will increase by 5GW or more per year in the future.†Li Junfeng revealed the above figures at the Suntech 10th Anniversary Celebration and PV Market Strategy Seminar held yesterday. He also said that China will become the world's largest PV application market in 2015. The chairman of Suntech's board of directors and Shi Zhengrong also expressed the same view. Shi Zhengrong predicted that China's PV installed capacity will reach 10GW in 2015, while the US installed capacity will be 5-6GW, becoming the second largest market, followed by India. Compared with Shi Zhengrong, Li Junfeng, the official background, has a higher forecast for China's PV market. He believes that China's installed capacity will reach 15-20GW in 2015 and 50GW or even 100GW in 2020. According to the number provided by Solarbuzz senior analyst Lian Rui on the same occasion, China's installed capacity will be 1.6-2GW by the end of this year. At present, the world's major PV market is concentrated in Europe, Germany and Italy are currently the world's first and second largest PV market. However, these two countries adjusted their PV subsidy policies in May this year. In addition to reducing subsidies, they also explicitly proposed not to support the installation of large-scale systems on the ground. Ash Sharma, director of global photovoltaic market research at IMS Research, said the rise of the Chinese and Indian markets could help the PV industry get rid of a country's policy changes and affect the industry. At present, changes in German and Italian policies have caused turmoil in the PV market. Shi Zhengrong said that the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by 30% in the past three months. Lian Rui said that although the market prospects are very broad in the long run, this year and next year will be the "winter" of the photovoltaic industry. Reducing costs is the key to development. How to deal with “winterâ€? Entrepreneurs and experts have mentioned reducing costs. Li Junfeng said that the photovoltaic industry is still in a state of overcapacity, and companies should focus on reducing costs, rather than thinking about expansion. Shi Zhengrong also said that the cost reduction will determine the future of the industry and the success or failure of the enterprise, and the cost must be reduced through innovation. However, he also stressed that innovation can not be rushed for a while, should give Chinese PV companies more time. For a long time, China's photovoltaic industry has been accused of “two heads outâ€, that is, the market is outside and the technology is outside. With the announcement of the on-grid tariff of photovoltaic power generation in July this year, the market potential of solar photovoltaic power generation is stimulated, China's market potential is increasingly optimistic, but the lack of independent core technology is still the bottleneck. Shi Zhengrong said that Suntech has formed a research team of 450 people and is working hard to promote the efficiency of battery conversion and further reduce production costs. Ash Sharma further believes that reducing costs is not only a response to the “winter†trick, but also the only way for photovoltaic power generation to enter the mainstream market and compete with coal-fired wind power. Photovoltaic power generation enters the "one dollar era" next year. Shi Zhengrong said that with the further decline in costs, China's photovoltaic power generation will enter the "one dollar era" in 2012. According to the on-grid price of solar photovoltaic power generation benchmarks announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in July, the project approval period is set at 1.15 yuan / kWh and 1 yuan / kWh respectively. In 2009, Suntech and LDK and other PV companies jointly issued the “Luoyang Declarationâ€, stating that in 2012, the PV on-grid price will be “1 yuan/kWhâ€. The price at that time was about 4 yuan / kWh. But in the past two years, with the advancement of technology and the decline in cost, "the price of electricity for one dollar is already around the corner," Li Junfeng said. In 2015, half of the countries achieved parity Internet access. The price of photovoltaic power generation refers to the fact that the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped to a level that can be profitable without relying on government subsidies, thereby achieving the same cost advantage as coal power. Once the price is reached, the popularity of photovoltaic power generation will be faster due to the environmental advantages. Shi Zhengrong said that in 2015, more than half of the countries will achieve parity online. As photovoltaic electricity prices enter the "one dollar era" and will continue to decline, while coal-fired electricity prices will maintain a certain degree of increase, China will also achieve parity online. In August of this year, the China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association Renewable Energy Special Committee issued the "China's photovoltaic emission level price online route", predicting that by 2014, photovoltaic power generation on-grid electricity prices will be lower than the industrial and commercial electricity prices, to achieve parity online.
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