January LME lead and zinc prices showed a decline.
In the lead period, Ivernia's Magellan lead mine in Australia suspended production and shipment of lead concentrate due to environmental problems and declared force majeure. The mine’s production accounted for approximately 2% of the world’s total, and LME lead prices rose sharply since May 2008. The new high. In the later period, due to the substantial increase in LME lead inventories (which rose to the highest level since 1995), the price has dropped again. The total price of LME lead in March ** fell by 4.08%.
1. Supply-demand relationship: According to the estimated data of CRU, the world's lead production in 2011 was 9.512 million tons, consumption was 952.70 million tons, and the gap was 15,000 tons.
2. European market: Lead free water in the European free market fell from 15 to 35 euros/t to 15 to 25 euros/t, and the high inventory makes it difficult for suppliers to demand higher premiums. In the European market, the supply of lead metal has been oversupply, and producers have had to offer lower prices to win the deal. Others claimed that the price quoted by the FOB Israeli port to European buyers is equivalent to the LME price.
3. Domestic market: According to the customs data, China's refined lead imports in 2010 were 21,533t, which was a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% and imported concentrates were 1,603,800t, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The export refined lead was 23071t, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.18%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of refined lead in China was 4,316,000 tons in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. Lead concentrate production was 2.193 million tons, an increase of 32.3% over the same period last year.
4, the industry's view: Some people say, LME spot premium does not represent the actual situation. The lead market has deviated from the fundamentals and there are a large number of sources available. Increased inventories indicate this. According to the International Lead-Zinc Group, the global lead market in 2010 had a surplus of 41,000 tons. The reason for the recent continuous increase in inventory is that 80 to 90% of LME spot contracts and warehouse receipts are controlled by a large household, resulting in the continued rise in spot premiums.
5. The probability of a slight rebound in recent prices is greater.
Zinc has experienced significant growth in China's refined zinc and zinc concentrate production in 2010. Imports of refined zinc have dropped significantly while exports have increased significantly. Shanghai and LME zinc stocks are huge. The price of LME zinc in March fell by 6.66%.
1. Supply and demand relationship: According to the estimation data of CRU, the global refined zinc production in the first quarter of 2011 was 3.14 million tons, and the consumption was 3.065 million tons, with a surplus of 80,000 tons.
2. US Market: After experiencing a wave of buying by galvanized industry buyers at the end of last year, the US zinc market has stabilized. The unexpected buying was caused by the sudden increase in steel prices in the last six weeks of 2010, and the buyers of the steel industry were not sure about the raw material prices, so they were due to purchases from the market. The galvanized industry hopes that zinc prices will fall below $2,000. A person from the Midwestern galvanizing industry stated that the solar power construction project is a demand growth point. Warehouse receipts and mortgage transactions resulted in tight supply, high premiums, and a low trading volume of as much as 6 cents/lb., with premiums ranging from 4.5 to 5.5 cents/lb.
Large-scale galvanized sheet manufacturers, which are large buyers of zinc in the United States, stated that they set a supply contract of 4 to 4.5 cents per pound (based on LME spot price), which is lower than the current spot market of 5 cents. / lb premium premium zinc premium water. Those smaller galvanized sheet producers need to pay higher premiums, exceeding 5 cents/lb.
3, zinc concentrate processing fees: Analysts said that compared with last year, the mine may be able to get lower zinc concentrate processing fees this year. Based on the current market conditions, the mine is expected to gain the upper hand in the negotiations. Duncan Hobbs, analyst at Macquarie Bank, said that smelting companies are looking for processing fees this year that are roughly the same as in 2010, while mines are hoping to cut 20-30%, or more, than 2010. In 2010, the Canadian zinc mine Teck Resources and the zinc smelting company Xstrata determined the processing fee of US$270/t, with a zinc price of US$2,500/t as the base price. Some analysts believe that zinc concentrate processing fees in 2011 may be reduced by 15% to 20% compared with 2010. Hobbs said that the mines have their own plans for this year's processing fees, and China will be a very important factor. The supply of zinc concentrates is tighter than the supply of refined zinc, and China’s smelting capacity is in surplus. In other words, the market can actually supply Compared with zinc concentrates, smelting enterprises have stronger smelting capacity. The smelting company's demand for concentrates and the mine's concentrate supply capacity are out of balance, which is beneficial to the mines, so the mines take the initiative. In addition to supply factors, another factor influencing the annual zinc concentrate processing fee negotiations was the spot zinc concentrate processing fees in the Chinese market at that time. It is estimated that China's spot zinc concentrate processing fees will be at a relatively low level this year. This is a mine aspect. Hobbs estimates that the current processing cost for spot zinc concentrates in China is only US$130 to US$140 per tonne.
4, the domestic market: Customs data show that in 2010 China's refined zinc imports 323,300 t, a year-on-year decrease of 51.71%, zinc alloy imports 154,400 t, an increase of 15.79%, zinc concentrate imports 3,240,500 t, a year-on-year decrease of 15.44%. The export of refined zinc was 43,100 tons, an increase of 47.39% year-on-year. National Bureau of Statistics data show that during the same period China's refined zinc production was 5.265 million tons, an increase of 19.7%, zinc ore (metal content) 3.928 million tons, an increase of 20.4%.
5. Institutional perspective: Analysts said that the outlook for the zinc market in 2011 was bleak. The increase in zinc production led to ample inventory, so the zinc price in 2011 is difficult to pick up. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate from 2000 to 2500 US dollars for most of 2011, and the average price may be slightly higher than that in 2010. The average price in 2010 is about 2,150 US dollars, and it is estimated to be 2,300 US dollars in 2011.
6, recent zinc prices also have a moderate increase in demand.
In the lead period, Ivernia's Magellan lead mine in Australia suspended production and shipment of lead concentrate due to environmental problems and declared force majeure. The mine’s production accounted for approximately 2% of the world’s total, and LME lead prices rose sharply since May 2008. The new high. In the later period, due to the substantial increase in LME lead inventories (which rose to the highest level since 1995), the price has dropped again. The total price of LME lead in March ** fell by 4.08%.
1. Supply-demand relationship: According to the estimated data of CRU, the world's lead production in 2011 was 9.512 million tons, consumption was 952.70 million tons, and the gap was 15,000 tons.
2. European market: Lead free water in the European free market fell from 15 to 35 euros/t to 15 to 25 euros/t, and the high inventory makes it difficult for suppliers to demand higher premiums. In the European market, the supply of lead metal has been oversupply, and producers have had to offer lower prices to win the deal. Others claimed that the price quoted by the FOB Israeli port to European buyers is equivalent to the LME price.
3. Domestic market: According to the customs data, China's refined lead imports in 2010 were 21,533t, which was a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% and imported concentrates were 1,603,800t, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The export refined lead was 23071t, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.18%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of refined lead in China was 4,316,000 tons in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. Lead concentrate production was 2.193 million tons, an increase of 32.3% over the same period last year.
4, the industry's view: Some people say, LME spot premium does not represent the actual situation. The lead market has deviated from the fundamentals and there are a large number of sources available. Increased inventories indicate this. According to the International Lead-Zinc Group, the global lead market in 2010 had a surplus of 41,000 tons. The reason for the recent continuous increase in inventory is that 80 to 90% of LME spot contracts and warehouse receipts are controlled by a large household, resulting in the continued rise in spot premiums.
5. The probability of a slight rebound in recent prices is greater.
Zinc has experienced significant growth in China's refined zinc and zinc concentrate production in 2010. Imports of refined zinc have dropped significantly while exports have increased significantly. Shanghai and LME zinc stocks are huge. The price of LME zinc in March fell by 6.66%.
1. Supply and demand relationship: According to the estimation data of CRU, the global refined zinc production in the first quarter of 2011 was 3.14 million tons, and the consumption was 3.065 million tons, with a surplus of 80,000 tons.
2. US Market: After experiencing a wave of buying by galvanized industry buyers at the end of last year, the US zinc market has stabilized. The unexpected buying was caused by the sudden increase in steel prices in the last six weeks of 2010, and the buyers of the steel industry were not sure about the raw material prices, so they were due to purchases from the market. The galvanized industry hopes that zinc prices will fall below $2,000. A person from the Midwestern galvanizing industry stated that the solar power construction project is a demand growth point. Warehouse receipts and mortgage transactions resulted in tight supply, high premiums, and a low trading volume of as much as 6 cents/lb., with premiums ranging from 4.5 to 5.5 cents/lb.
Large-scale galvanized sheet manufacturers, which are large buyers of zinc in the United States, stated that they set a supply contract of 4 to 4.5 cents per pound (based on LME spot price), which is lower than the current spot market of 5 cents. / lb premium premium zinc premium water. Those smaller galvanized sheet producers need to pay higher premiums, exceeding 5 cents/lb.
3, zinc concentrate processing fees: Analysts said that compared with last year, the mine may be able to get lower zinc concentrate processing fees this year. Based on the current market conditions, the mine is expected to gain the upper hand in the negotiations. Duncan Hobbs, analyst at Macquarie Bank, said that smelting companies are looking for processing fees this year that are roughly the same as in 2010, while mines are hoping to cut 20-30%, or more, than 2010. In 2010, the Canadian zinc mine Teck Resources and the zinc smelting company Xstrata determined the processing fee of US$270/t, with a zinc price of US$2,500/t as the base price. Some analysts believe that zinc concentrate processing fees in 2011 may be reduced by 15% to 20% compared with 2010. Hobbs said that the mines have their own plans for this year's processing fees, and China will be a very important factor. The supply of zinc concentrates is tighter than the supply of refined zinc, and China’s smelting capacity is in surplus. In other words, the market can actually supply Compared with zinc concentrates, smelting enterprises have stronger smelting capacity. The smelting company's demand for concentrates and the mine's concentrate supply capacity are out of balance, which is beneficial to the mines, so the mines take the initiative. In addition to supply factors, another factor influencing the annual zinc concentrate processing fee negotiations was the spot zinc concentrate processing fees in the Chinese market at that time. It is estimated that China's spot zinc concentrate processing fees will be at a relatively low level this year. This is a mine aspect. Hobbs estimates that the current processing cost for spot zinc concentrates in China is only US$130 to US$140 per tonne.
4, the domestic market: Customs data show that in 2010 China's refined zinc imports 323,300 t, a year-on-year decrease of 51.71%, zinc alloy imports 154,400 t, an increase of 15.79%, zinc concentrate imports 3,240,500 t, a year-on-year decrease of 15.44%. The export of refined zinc was 43,100 tons, an increase of 47.39% year-on-year. National Bureau of Statistics data show that during the same period China's refined zinc production was 5.265 million tons, an increase of 19.7%, zinc ore (metal content) 3.928 million tons, an increase of 20.4%.
5. Institutional perspective: Analysts said that the outlook for the zinc market in 2011 was bleak. The increase in zinc production led to ample inventory, so the zinc price in 2011 is difficult to pick up. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate from 2000 to 2500 US dollars for most of 2011, and the average price may be slightly higher than that in 2010. The average price in 2010 is about 2,150 US dollars, and it is estimated to be 2,300 US dollars in 2011.
6, recent zinc prices also have a moderate increase in demand.
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