Zhang Xinfa, a senior analyst at Galaxy Securities, said that although the growth rate was lower than the 6.8% year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year, it does not mean that the economic situation in the first quarter is worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year, as the GDP growth rate in the third quarter of last year was 9 %, from the decline in the year-on-year growth rate, the first quarter of this year has begun to narrow. Compared with the year-on-year data, the performance of the ring data is more reflective of changes in the economic situation.
Dong Xianan, a senior analyst at Southwest Securities, further pointed out that from the year-on-year ratio data showing the trend of the economy, the figure was 1% in the fourth quarter of last year and 6% in the first quarter of this year, which has a large increase. He believes that The fourth quarter of last year has already been the bottom of China's economy. At present, China's economic recovery trend is obvious.
Dong Xianan said that in the next two or three quarters, China's economy is about to enter a rising channel. In the second quarter, GDP growth is expected to be 6.5%-7%, while in the third quarter it will reach 8%-8.5%, and in the fourth quarter it is 9.5-10%. China's GDP growth rate in 2009 is likely to reach the 7.5-8% range.
Zhang Xinfa also pointed out that the first quarter's ring data will be better than the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy has bottomed out, but the recovery will not be too large, it is unlikely to have a strong V-shaped reversal, due to the expansion of domestic demand for large investment from the next Achieving a certain degree of transition in order to achieve production capacity and stimulate GDP growth, the economy may be at the bottom for a period of time, and will begin to rebound after the second half.
In fact, in a series of macro data that have been published, foreign trade data in March showed that China's import and export declines have slowed down significantly, and the scale of credit has also shown a spurt of growth.
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