Abstract A series of economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 12th showed that industrial production has accelerated, and fixed asset investment has initially shown signs of stabilization. Consumption continues to be steady... The economic data in November is generally better than market expectations, economic...
A series of economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 12th showed that industrial production has accelerated, and fixed asset investment has initially shown signs of stabilization. Consumption continues to be steady. The economic data in November is generally better than market expectations, and there are many positive changes in economic operations. . The data shows that the growth rate of national fixed asset investment from January to November was the same as that of the previous 10 months, which changed the trend of this indicator since the second half of 2014.
In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year and 0.58% quarter-on-quarter, which was 0.6 and 0.12 percentage points higher than that in October. In terms of industry categories, ferrous metals rose to 7% from 5.6% in October, non-ferrous metals fell to 11.8% from 12.1% in October, and non-metallic minerals rose from 4.9% in October to 5.2%. There has been a rebound; general-purpose equipment has risen from 1.7% in October to 2.5%, special equipment has dropped from 4.6% in October to 2.2%, electrical machinery and equipment has dropped from 7.3% in October to 6.4%, and downstream capital output still remains. At the low level; the automotive industry rose from 7.3 percent in October to 13 percent.
The CICC Fixed Income Group believes that the economic data in November is generally better than market expectations, especially industrial output and fixed investment, but this does not mean that the economy is stabilizing. The rebound in industrial output was mainly due to the growth of automobile output and the low base in the same period of last year. As the rebound in automobile output was mainly related to policy support, the rebound in industrial output was insufficient. Investment stabilization is mainly driven by the sharp rebound in infrastructure investment. Considering the accelerated downturn in real estate investment, insufficient demand will put downward pressure on investment. The focus of the economy next year is on the sale of commercial housing. Once the sales of commercial housing declines, real estate investment will accelerate the risk of falling back. The industry and the overall economic growth may continue to slow down. The fundamentals still support the rate of return.
In November, the growth rate of commercial housing sales increased from 5.5% in October to 8.6%. The growth rate of new housing starts increased from -24.5% in October to -20.9%, and real estate development investment continued from -2.9% in October. Dropped to -4.5%, data from 100 large and medium-sized cities showed that the planned land area of ​​the transaction land continued to decline. In addition to the relatively good sales of commercial housing, real estate data continued to be sluggish in November, especially as real estate investment accelerated. The funds in place for real estate companies continue to improve, but the growth rate is still relatively low.
Zhongjin believes that with the investment of residents, the probability of commercial housing sales will slow down significantly next year. It is expected that the new construction area of ​​housing will continue to decline next year, but it is still higher than the sales area of ​​commercial housing, which means that the generalized inventory of real estate will continue to accumulate. Inventory is still the core issue facing the real estate market. It is expected that land sales will continue to decrease next year, and real estate investment faces greater downside risks.
In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 11.2% year-on-year, which continued to rise from 11% in October, indicating that the overall consumption was relatively stable.
The industry believes that from the main sub-items of retail sales of consumer goods, as the sales of commercial housing are still stable, real estate-related consumption has maintained a relatively high growth rate, furniture consumption has risen from 12.4% in October to 14.5%, and household appliances consumption has been from October. 7.1% rose to 18%; spurred by the partial purchase of some vehicles in the previous period, automobile consumption continued to maintain rapid growth, automobile consumption rose from 7.1% in October to 9%; consumption growth of daily necessities from 10.2 in October % rose to 14%.
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